Football · USA USL Championship · 19/07, 02:30
Prediction: Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Tulsa1.64
El Paso Locomotive FC1.23
1X2
Tulsa
Draw
El Paso Locomotive FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tulsa
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
El Paso Locomotive FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tulsa
2–3–1
El Paso Locomotive FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tulsa 1498 · El Paso Locomotive FC 1451
| Tulsa | Draw | El Paso Locomotive FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tulsa (rating 1498 vs 1451).
- H2H favours Tulsa: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tulsa | El Paso Locomotive FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tulsa 2–3–1 El Paso Locomotive FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 USA USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Tulsa |
| 19/10/25 USA USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tulsa |
| 11/05/25 USA USL Championship | Tulsa | 1-1 HT 0-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
| 06/10/24 USA USL Championship | Tulsa | 0-1 HT 0-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
| 28/04/24 USA USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tulsa |
| 01/04/23 USA USL Championship | Tulsa | 2-2 HT 1-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Oakland Roots | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 19 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 19 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 9 | Lexington SC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 18 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 15 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tulsa | El Paso Locomotive FC |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Monterey Bay FC | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tulsa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 18/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 31/05 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 04/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 30/04 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 11 | W |
El Paso Locomotive FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | New Mexico United USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tulsa win (46%). Probabilities: Tulsa 46%, draw 26%, El Paso Locomotive FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive FC?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Tulsa 1.64 · El Paso Locomotive FC 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.