Football · USA USL Championship · 19/07, 04:30
Prediction: Phoenix Rising FC vs Monterey Bay FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Phoenix Rising FC1.68
Monterey Bay FC1.25
1X2
Phoenix Rising FC
Draw
Monterey Bay FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Phoenix Rising FC
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Monterey Bay FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Phoenix Rising FC
2–1–3
Monterey Bay FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Phoenix Rising FC 1454 · Monterey Bay FC 1488
| Phoenix Rising FC | Draw | Monterey Bay FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Monterey Bay FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Phoenix Rising FC | Monterey Bay FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Phoenix Rising FC 2–1–3 Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/25 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 30/03/25 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 05/10/24 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 17/03/24 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 30/07/23 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 16/04/23 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Oakland Roots | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 19 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 19 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 9 | Lexington SC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 18 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 15 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Phoenix Rising FC | Monterey Bay FC |
|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sacramento Republic | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| San Antonio FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/07 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/06 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | AC Boise USA USL Cup |
3-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Phoenix Rising FC vs Monterey Bay FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Phoenix Rising FC win (46%). Probabilities: Phoenix Rising FC 46%, draw 26%, Monterey Bay FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Phoenix Rising FC vs Monterey Bay FC?
The model expects 2.93 goals (Phoenix Rising FC 1.68 · Monterey Bay FC 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Phoenix Rising FC vs Monterey Bay FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.