Football · USA USL Championship · 18/07, 18:00
Prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Louisville City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.19
Louisville City FC1.16
1X2
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Draw
Louisville City FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Louisville City FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2–1–3
Louisville City FC
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Louisville City FC (rating 1487 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Louisville City FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Louisville City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.2 | 3.7 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1–3 Louisville City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 14/09/25 USA USL Championship | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Louisville City FC |
| 11/05/25 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 20/06/24 USA USL Championship | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Louisville City FC |
| 23/03/24 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 13/07/23 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 21 | 26 |
| 3 | Detroit City FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Louisville City FC | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 24 |
| 5 | Indy Eleven | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 19 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 24 | 18 |
| 9 | Rhode Island FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 18 | 16 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 14 |
| 11 | Brooklyn FC | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 24 | 12 |
| 12 | Loudoun United FC | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 28 | 11 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 41 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Louisville City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn FC | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Hartford Athletic | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Miami FC | 2-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Louisville City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 11/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Union Omaha USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Louisville City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win (35%). Probabilities: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 35%, draw 31%, Louisville City FC 34%.
How many goals are expected in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Louisville City FC?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.19 · Louisville City FC 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Louisville City FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.