Football · USA USL Championship · 19/07, 03:00
Prediction: San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
San Antonio FC1.57
Las Vegas Lights FC1.17
1X2
San Antonio FC
Draw
Las Vegas Lights FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
San Antonio FC
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Las Vegas Lights FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Antonio FC
2–3–1
Las Vegas Lights FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Antonio FC 1557 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1482
| San Antonio FC | Draw | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Antonio FC (rating 1557 vs 1482).
- H2H favours San Antonio FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Antonio FC | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4 | 1.5 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.4 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Antonio FC 2–3–1 Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | San Antonio FC |
| 08/06/25 USA USL Championship | San Antonio FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 12/05/24 USA USL Championship | San Antonio FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 07/04/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Antonio FC |
| 08/05/23 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | San Antonio FC |
| 30/04/23 USA USL Championship | San Antonio FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Oakland Roots | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 19 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 19 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 9 | Lexington SC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 18 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Antonio FC | Las Vegas Lights FC |
|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay FC | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Lexington SC | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Tulsa | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Las Vegas Lights FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Antonio FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 25/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Tulsa USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 28/05 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | One Knoxville SC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | D |
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 05/07 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Antonio FC win (46%). Probabilities: San Antonio FC 46%, draw 27%, Las Vegas Lights FC 27%.
How many goals are expected in San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model expects 2.74 goals (San Antonio FC 1.57 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in San Antonio FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.