Football · USA USL Championship · 02/08, 01:00

Prediction: Lexington SC vs Monterey Bay FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Lexington SC1.92

Monterey Bay FC1.29

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Lexington SC Draw Monterey Bay FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lexington SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWLLWD

Monterey Bay FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Lexington SC 1–1–1 Monterey Bay FC (3 last)

Lexington SC3-1Monterey Bay FC
Monterey Bay FC2-1Lexington SC
Lexington SC0-0Monterey Bay FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1528 vs 1488).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lexington SC	Monterey Bay FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.5	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.94

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:27

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.56 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.15▲	Pinn 4.15
2	5.00 → 5.09▲	Pinn 5.09

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:29	1.56	4.10	5.00
05:27	1.57▲	4.15▲	5.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 1–1–1 Monterey Bay FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	3-1 HT 2-0	Monterey Bay FC
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Monterey Bay FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Lexington SC
20/04/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Monterey Bay FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	16	7	7	2	25	18	28
2	San Antonio FC	16	6	7	3	21	19	25
3	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	19	15	24
4	Colorado Switchbacks FC	15	6	4	5	26	22	22
5	Tulsa	14	6	4	4	18	16	22
6	Lexington SC	15	6	3	6	24	20	21
7	Oakland Roots	16	5	6	5	24	24	21
8	Sacramento Republic	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
9	Phoenix Rising FC	16	5	5	6	23	24	20
10	El Paso Locomotive FC	15	5	4	6	25	25	19
11	Las Vegas Lights FC	15	5	3	7	23	26	18
12	Monterey Bay FC	16	4	3	9	16	25	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lexington SC	Monterey Bay FC
Tulsa	0-0 D	0-2 L
San Antonio FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
El Paso Locomotive FC	4-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lexington SC

LWDWDWLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
23/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/07	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
12/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Cup	2-2	2-4	5	6	L
05/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	2	3	W
21/06	Indy Eleven USA USL Cup	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
14/06	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
07/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Cup	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
31/05	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
24/05	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	6	6	L

Monterey Bay FC

LWWDWLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
12/07	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup	2-0	2-3	6	8	L
05/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
21/06	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
18/06	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
11/06	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
07/06	Sacramento Republic USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
31/05	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
24/05	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/05	AC Boise USA USL Cup	3-1	3-4	0	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs Monterey Bay FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lexington SC win (51%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 51%, draw 24%, Monterey Bay FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs Monterey Bay FC?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Lexington SC 1.92 · Monterey Bay FC 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs Monterey Bay FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.