Football · USA USL Championship · 27/08, 03:30

Prediction: New Mexico United vs Lexington SC

Team pages: New Mexico United · Lexington SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

New Mexico United1.75

Lexington SC0.93

1X2

56% 26% 19%

New Mexico United Draw Lexington SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New Mexico United 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWWD

Lexington SC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWLW

Head-to-head

New Mexico United 2–1 Lexington SC (3 last)

Lexington SC1-4New Mexico United
New Mexico United2-1Lexington SC
Lexington SC2-1New Mexico United

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1605 vs 1537).
H2H favours New Mexico United: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New Mexico United	Lexington SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.5	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.51.96

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.68 → 2.69▲	Pinn 2.69
X	3.26 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.30
2	2.52 → 2.56▲	Pinn 2.56

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +1’	2.68	3.26	2.52
02:39 +2’	2.71▲	3.30▲	2.54▲
05:26	2.69▼	3.30	2.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 2–0–1 Lexington SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	1-4 HT 0-2	New Mexico United
29/09/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	2-1 HT 2-0	Lexington SC
15/06/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	2-1 HT 0-1	New Mexico United

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	New Mexico United	18	10	4	4	26	17	34
2	Orange County SC	21	9	7	5	32	30	34
3	El Paso Locomotive FC	21	10	4	7	33	27	34
4	Tulsa	20	9	5	6	25	19	32
5	San Antonio FC	21	8	8	5	26	25	32
6	Sacramento Republic	20	8	7	5	27	18	31
7	Lexington SC	20	9	4	7	30	23	31
8	Las Vegas Lights FC	21	8	5	8	28	30	29
9	Colorado Switchbacks FC	21	8	4	9	32	32	28
10	Oakland Roots	22	6	8	8	27	30	26
11	Phoenix Rising FC	21	6	8	7	29	29	26
12	Monterey Bay FC	22	4	4	14	23	40	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New Mexico United	Lexington SC
Tulsa	1-0 W	0-0 D
Monterey Bay FC	5-2 W	3-2 W
Oakland Roots	2-1 W	2-0 W
Sacramento Republic	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: New Mexico United (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New Mexico United

WDDWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
16/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
09/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	5-2	2	3	W
02/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
16/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
05/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/06	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
31/05	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/05	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	7	W

Lexington SC

WWWLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
16/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	11	4	W
26/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
23/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/07	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
05/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	2	3	W
14/06	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
31/05	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Lexington SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New Mexico United win (56%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 56%, draw 26%, Lexington SC 19%.

How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs Lexington SC?

The model expects 2.68 goals (New Mexico United 1.75 · Lexington SC 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Lexington SC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.