Football · USA USL Championship · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Brooklyn FC

Team pages: Tampa Bay Rowdies · Brooklyn FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.92

Brooklyn FC1.04

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw Brooklyn FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWWLD

Brooklyn FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Brooklyn FC (1 last)

Brooklyn FC0-2Tampa Bay Rowdies

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1545 vs 1467).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Brooklyn FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.83

Under 31.96

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.29▲	Pinn 1.29
X	5.53 → 5.63▲	Pinn 5.63
2	7.72 → 7.94▲	Pinn 7.94

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:21	1.28	5.53	7.72
11:33	1.29▲	5.63▲	7.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0–0 Brooklyn FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 USA USL Championship	Brooklyn FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Tampa Bay Rowdies

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	22	13	6	3	38	20	45
2	Charleston Battery	22	12	3	7	46	27	39
3	Detroit City FC	21	10	6	5	27	17	36
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	23	10	4	9	25	23	34
5	Louisville City FC	22	9	5	8	37	36	32
6	Indy Eleven	20	8	4	8	24	24	28
7	Rhode Island FC	20	8	4	8	30	23	28
8	Hartford Athletic	20	6	9	5	18	20	27
9	Miami FC	22	5	7	10	25	39	22
10	Loudoun United FC	21	3	11	7	22	34	20
11	Birmingham Legion FC	20	3	8	9	24	30	17
12	Brooklyn FC	20	4	4	12	22	36	16
13	Sporting JAX	22	2	5	15	27	58	11

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Brooklyn FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-0 D	0-1 L
Louisville City FC	5-4 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tampa Bay Rowdies (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tampa Bay Rowdies

LWLDWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
09/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
02/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-3	5-4	5	1	W
26/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-2	3	10	W
19/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
05/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	12	3	L
21/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
14/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	15	2	L

Brooklyn FC

DDLWDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	6	4	W
23/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
16/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
02/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
26/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
19/07	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
05/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
21/06	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
14/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
01/06	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	2-1	2-2	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Brooklyn FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (57%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 57%, draw 24%, Brooklyn FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Brooklyn FC?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.92 · Brooklyn FC 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Brooklyn FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.