Football · USA USL Championship · 06/09, 04:00

Prediction: Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic

Team pages: Orange County SC · Sacramento Republic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Orange County SC1.2

Sacramento Republic1.5

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Orange County SC Draw Sacramento Republic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Orange County SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLLLD

Sacramento Republic 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLDWDD

Head-to-head

Orange County SC 2–1–3 Sacramento Republic (6 last)

Sacramento Republic3-2Orange County SC
Sacramento Republic0-0Orange County SC
Sacramento Republic2-1Orange County SC
Orange County SC1-0Sacramento Republic
Orange County SC2-1Sacramento Republic
Orange County SC0-2Sacramento Republic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orange County SC 1472 · Sacramento Republic 1527

	Orange County SC	Draw	Sacramento Republic
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1472 vs 1527).
H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orange County SC	Sacramento Republic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.25

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.73 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.54
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +2’	3.10	3.25	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:22	3.69	3.50	1.92
11:34	3.73▲	3.54▲	1.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orange County SC 2–1–3 Sacramento Republic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	3-2 HT 0-1	Orange County SC
03/11/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	0-0 HT 0-0	Orange County SC
02/10/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-1 HT 1-0	Orange County SC
29/06/25 USA USL Cup	Orange County SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
13/04/25 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	2-1 HT 1-0	Sacramento Republic
21/04/24 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	0-2 HT 0-2	Sacramento Republic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	23	12	4	7	39	29	40
2	New Mexico United	20	11	4	5	29	20	37
3	Orange County SC	22	9	8	5	33	31	35
4	Tulsa	21	10	5	6	26	19	35
5	San Antonio FC	22	9	8	5	28	26	35
6	Sacramento Republic	21	8	8	5	28	19	32
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	22	9	4	9	33	32	31
8	Lexington SC	22	9	4	9	31	26	31
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	22	8	5	9	28	32	29
10	Phoenix Rising FC	22	7	8	7	31	30	29
11	Oakland Roots	23	6	9	8	28	31	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	23	4	5	14	24	41	17

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orange County SC	Sacramento Republic
Oakland Roots	1-1 D	3-1 W
Tulsa	1-5 L	0-1 L
Monterey Bay FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rhode Island FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orange County SC

WWDDWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
16/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
09/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
02/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
26/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
09/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
05/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/06	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	4-2	3	4	W
21/06	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	5	2	W

Sacramento Republic

LWDWWLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
23/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
16/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
09/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
06/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	4-0	5-0	4	5	W
26/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
19/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
09/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
21/06	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sacramento Republic win (43%). Probabilities: Orange County SC 29%, draw 28%, Sacramento Republic 43%.

How many goals are expected in Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Orange County SC 1.2 · Sacramento Republic 1.5), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.