Football · USA USL Championship · 06/09, 01:00

Prediction: Sporting JAX vs Lexington SC

Team pages: Sporting JAX · Lexington SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Sporting JAX1.69

Lexington SC1.78

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Sporting JAX Draw Lexington SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting JAX 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Lexington SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1437 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting JAX	Lexington SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.5	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.69 → 3.69	Pinn 3.69
X	3.76 → 3.76	Pinn 3.76
2	1.88 → 1.88	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:33	3.69	3.76	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	23	12	4	7	39	29	40
2	New Mexico United	20	11	4	5	29	20	37
3	Orange County SC	22	9	8	5	33	31	35
4	Tulsa	21	10	5	6	26	19	35
5	San Antonio FC	22	9	8	5	28	26	35
6	Sacramento Republic	21	8	8	5	28	19	32
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	22	9	4	9	33	32	31
8	Lexington SC	22	9	4	9	31	26	31
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	22	8	5	9	28	32	29
10	Phoenix Rising FC	22	7	8	7	31	30	29
11	Oakland Roots	23	6	9	8	28	31	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	23	4	5	14	24	41	17

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting JAX

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
23/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	5	2	W
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
26/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
19/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
04/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
21/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-3	2-5	3	5	L
14/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-3	2-6	5	6	L

Lexington SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
27/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
16/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	11	4	W
26/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
23/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/07	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
05/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting JAX vs Lexington SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lexington SC win (40%). Probabilities: Sporting JAX 36%, draw 24%, Lexington SC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting JAX vs Lexington SC?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Sporting JAX 1.69 · Lexington SC 1.78), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting JAX vs Lexington SC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.