Football · USA USL Championship · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Rhode Island FC vs Louisville City FC

Team pages: Rhode Island FC · Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Rhode Island FC1.45

Louisville City FC1.34

1X2

39% 28% 34%

Rhode Island FC Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rhode Island FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLWLWL

Louisville City FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLDWLD

Head-to-head

Rhode Island FC 2–1–3 Louisville City FC (6 last)

Louisville City FC4-2Rhode Island FC
Rhode Island FC0-1Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC2-1Rhode Island FC
Louisville City FC0-3Rhode Island FC
Louisville City FC2-5Rhode Island FC
Rhode Island FC0-0Louisville City FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Louisville City FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rhode Island FC	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.2	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.89

Under 2.51.89

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.41 → 2.43▲	Pinn 2.43
X	3.31 → 3.35▲	Pinn 3.35
2	2.79 → 2.82▲	Pinn 2.82

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:21	2.41	3.31	2.79
11:33 +1’	2.43▲	3.35▲	2.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rhode Island FC 2–1–3 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	4-2 HT 1-1	Rhode Island FC
07/09/25 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Louisville City FC
12/06/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Rhode Island FC
10/11/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-3 HT 0-1	Rhode Island FC
23/06/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-5 HT 0-2	Rhode Island FC
25/05/24 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	22	13	6	3	38	20	45
2	Charleston Battery	22	12	3	7	46	27	39
3	Detroit City FC	21	10	6	5	27	17	36
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	23	10	4	9	25	23	34
5	Louisville City FC	22	9	5	8	37	36	32
6	Indy Eleven	20	8	4	8	24	24	28
7	Rhode Island FC	20	8	4	8	30	23	28
8	Hartford Athletic	20	6	9	5	18	20	27
9	Miami FC	22	5	7	10	25	39	22
10	Loudoun United FC	21	3	11	7	22	34	20
11	Birmingham Legion FC	20	3	8	9	24	30	17
12	Brooklyn FC	20	4	4	12	22	36	16
13	Sporting JAX	22	2	5	15	27	58	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rhode Island FC	Louisville City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-2 L	4-5 L
Birmingham Legion FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-0 W	1-3 L
Hartford Athletic	1-0 W	1-0 W
Orange County SC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rhode Island FC

WDLWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
23/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	9	8	W
16/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
09/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	2	8	W
03/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	13	3	L
26/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
09/07	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
05/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
14/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	3	5	W

Louisville City FC

WDWLWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-5	2	1	L
30/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	10	7	W
18/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
05/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
14/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	14	4	D
11/06	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rhode Island FC vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rhode Island FC win (39%). Probabilities: Rhode Island FC 39%, draw 28%, Louisville City FC 34%.

How many goals are expected in Rhode Island FC vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Rhode Island FC 1.45 · Louisville City FC 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rhode Island FC vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.