Football · USA USL Championship · 30/08, 03:00

Prediction: El Paso Locomotive FC vs Loudoun United FC

Team pages: El Paso Locomotive FC · Loudoun United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

El Paso Locomotive FC2.05

Loudoun United FC1.29

1X2

54% 24% 23%

El Paso Locomotive FC Draw Loudoun United FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

El Paso Locomotive FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Loudoun United FC 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

El Paso Locomotive FC 3–1 Loudoun United FC (4 last)

El Paso Locomotive FC1-2Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC0-2El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC1-0Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC1-3El Paso Locomotive FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · El Paso Locomotive FC 1478 · Loudoun United FC 1442

	El Paso Locomotive FC	Draw	Loudoun United FC
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours El Paso Locomotive FC: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El Paso Locomotive FC	Loudoun United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	2.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +1’	1.67	3.70	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · El Paso Locomotive FC 3–0–1 Loudoun United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/25 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Loudoun United FC
11/05/24 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	0-2 HT 0-2	El Paso Locomotive FC
14/05/23 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Loudoun United FC
01/05/22 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	1-3 HT 1-0	El Paso Locomotive FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Antonio FC	13	5	6	2	18	16	21
2	Orange County SC	12	5	5	2	15	11	20
3	Tulsa	12	5	4	3	16	14	19
4	Oakland Roots	13	4	6	3	19	17	18
5	Phoenix Rising FC	13	4	5	4	16	15	17
6	El Paso Locomotive FC	12	4	4	4	23	22	16
7	Sacramento Republic	11	4	4	3	13	11	16
8	New Mexico United	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	12	4	3	5	18	20	15
10	Lexington SC	12	4	3	5	17	15	15
11	Colorado Switchbacks FC	11	3	4	4	18	18	13
12	Monterey Bay FC	13	3	2	8	13	22	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El Paso Locomotive FC	Loudoun United FC
Oakland Roots	1-0 W	2-2 D
Detroit City FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Hartford Athletic	4-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: El Paso Locomotive FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

El Paso Locomotive FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
14/06	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
11/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/05	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
10/05	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
07/05	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
30/04	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	1-4	1	11	L
19/04	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
12/04	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	3-0	4-0	5	4	W
05/04	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-2	1	2	W

Loudoun United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-4	1	5	L
31/05	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	5	3	L
24/05	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
10/05	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
02/05	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
19/04	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/04	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-3	4	2	D
04/04	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	4	8	D
29/03	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
21/03	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Loudoun United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a El Paso Locomotive FC win (54%). Probabilities: El Paso Locomotive FC 54%, draw 24%, Loudoun United FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model expects 3.34 goals (El Paso Locomotive FC 2.05 · Loudoun United FC 1.29), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.