Football · USA USL Championship · 06/09, 01:00

Prediction: Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Team pages: Miami FC · Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Miami FC1.11

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.19

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Miami FC Draw Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Miami FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDWLLDLLL

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWLD

Head-to-head

Miami FC 1–1–4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds (6 last)

Pittsburgh Riverhounds2-0Miami FC
Miami FC3-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1-1Miami FC
Miami FC0-4Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1-0Miami FC
Miami FC1-2Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds (rating 1444 vs 1510).
H2H favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miami FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4	1.1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.97

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.95 → 2.95	Pinn 2.95
X	3.04 → 3.04	Pinn 3.04
2	2.52 → 2.52	Pinn 2.52

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:33	2.95	3.04	2.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Miami FC 1–1–4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-0 HT 0-0	Miami FC
05/10/25 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
30/07/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-1 HT 0-0	Miami FC
06/10/24 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	0-4 HT 0-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
05/05/24 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-0 HT 1-0	Miami FC
17/09/23 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	22	13	6	3	38	20	45
2	Charleston Battery	22	12	3	7	46	27	39
3	Detroit City FC	21	10	6	5	27	17	36
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	23	10	4	9	25	23	34
5	Louisville City FC	22	9	5	8	37	36	32
6	Indy Eleven	20	8	4	8	24	24	28
7	Rhode Island FC	20	8	4	8	30	23	28
8	Hartford Athletic	20	6	9	5	18	20	27
9	Miami FC	22	5	7	10	25	39	22
10	Loudoun United FC	21	3	11	7	22	34	20
11	Birmingham Legion FC	20	3	8	9	24	30	17
12	Brooklyn FC	20	4	4	12	22	36	16
13	Sporting JAX	22	2	5	15	27	58	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miami FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Charleston Battery	0-5 L	3-1 W
Tampa Bay Rowdies	2-3 L	0-0 D
Oakland Roots	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Miami FC

DLDWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	0-5	0	5	L
16/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	9	D
26/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-2	2-3	3	10	L
23/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
16/07	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
06/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
25/06	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-4	8	4	L
14/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

LWLLWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
27/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
23/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
16/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-1	3-1	6	8	W
09/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
02/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
30/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
26/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
18/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
16/07	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pittsburgh Riverhounds win (36%). Probabilities: Miami FC 33%, draw 31%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 36%.

How many goals are expected in Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Miami FC 1.11 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.