Football · USA USL Championship · 06/09, 04:00
Prediction: Monterey Bay FC vs Phoenix Rising FC
Team pages: Monterey Bay FC · Phoenix Rising FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Monterey Bay FC1.48
Phoenix Rising FC1.7
1X2
Monterey Bay FC
Draw
Phoenix Rising FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Monterey Bay FC
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Phoenix Rising FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monterey Bay FC
3–3
Phoenix Rising FC
(6 last)
- Phoenix Rising FC3-2Monterey Bay FC
- Phoenix Rising FC2-0Monterey Bay FC
- Monterey Bay FC3-1Phoenix Rising FC
- Phoenix Rising FC1-2Monterey Bay FC
- Monterey Bay FC1-0Phoenix Rising FC
- Monterey Bay FC0-2Phoenix Rising FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monterey Bay FC 1420 · Phoenix Rising FC 1488
| Monterey Bay FC | Draw | Phoenix Rising FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Phoenix Rising FC (rating 1420 vs 1488).
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monterey Bay FC | Phoenix Rising FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterey Bay FC 3–0–3 Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 18/05/25 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 30/03/25 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 05/10/24 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 17/03/24 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 30/07/23 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Phoenix Rising FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 37 |
| 3 | Orange County SC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 33 | 31 | 35 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 35 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 26 | 35 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 32 |
| 7 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 32 | 31 |
| 8 | Lexington SC | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 26 | 31 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 30 | 29 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 27 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 41 | 17 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monterey Bay FC | Phoenix Rising FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Oakland Roots | 1-1 D | 3-4 L |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Lexington SC | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-5 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 20/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 19/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monterey Bay FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Phoenix Rising FC win (42%). Probabilities: Monterey Bay FC 32%, draw 26%, Phoenix Rising FC 42%.
How many goals are expected in Monterey Bay FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Monterey Bay FC 1.48 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Monterey Bay FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.