Football · USA USL Championship · 06/09, 04:30
Prediction: Las Vegas Lights FC vs New Mexico United
Team pages: Las Vegas Lights FC · New Mexico United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Las Vegas Lights FC1.47
New Mexico United1.29
1X2
Las Vegas Lights FC
Draw
New Mexico United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Las Vegas Lights FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
New Mexico United
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Las Vegas Lights FC
2–1–3
New Mexico United
(6 last)
- New Mexico United3-1Las Vegas Lights FC
- New Mexico United2-2Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC2-3New Mexico United
- New Mexico United0-1Las Vegas Lights FC
- New Mexico United1-2Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC1-2New Mexico United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Las Vegas Lights FC 1508 · New Mexico United 1586
| Las Vegas Lights FC | Draw | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1508 vs 1586).
- H2H favours New Mexico United: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Las Vegas Lights FC | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.4 | 1.6 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Vegas Lights FC 2–1–3 New Mexico United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 17/08/25 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 16/03/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-3 HT 0-0 | New Mexico United |
| 10/11/24 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 01/08/24 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 05/05/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-2 HT 1-2 | New Mexico United |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 37 |
| 3 | Orange County SC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 33 | 31 | 35 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 35 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 26 | 35 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 32 |
| 7 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 32 | 31 |
| 8 | Lexington SC | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 26 | 31 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 30 | 29 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 27 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 41 | 17 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Las Vegas Lights FC | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|
| Lexington SC | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Oakland Roots | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| San Antonio FC | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Orange County SC | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: New Mexico United (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
New Mexico United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 27/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Lights FC vs New Mexico United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Vegas Lights FC win (41%). Probabilities: Las Vegas Lights FC 41%, draw 27%, New Mexico United 32%.
How many goals are expected in Las Vegas Lights FC vs New Mexico United?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.47 · New Mexico United 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights FC vs New Mexico United?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.