Football · USA USL Championship · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion FC

Team pages: Hartford Athletic · Birmingham Legion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Hartford Athletic1.53

Birmingham Legion FC0.87

1X2

52% 28% 20%

Hartford Athletic Draw Birmingham Legion FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hartford Athletic 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLDLDW

Birmingham Legion FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLDLWL

Head-to-head

Hartford Athletic 3–2–1 Birmingham Legion FC (6 last)

Birmingham Legion FC0-0Hartford Athletic
Birmingham Legion FC1-4Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic1-0Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC2-2Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic1-0Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC3-2Hartford Athletic

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartford Athletic (rating 1522 vs 1478).
H2H favours Hartford Athletic: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartford Athletic	Birmingham Legion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.8	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6	2.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.82

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:58

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.77 → 1.81▲	Pinn 1.81
X	3.95 → 3.92▼	Pinn 3.92
2	3.76 → 3.81▲	Pinn 3.81

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:56 +3’	1.77	3.95	3.76
03:57 +6’	1.81▲	3.94▼	3.81▲
11:54 +4’	1.81▲	3.92▼	3.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartford Athletic 3–2–1 Birmingham Legion FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic
10/08/25 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-4 HT 0-2	Hartford Athletic
19/04/25 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	1-0 HT 0-0	Birmingham Legion FC
04/08/24 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Hartford Athletic
23/03/24 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	1-0 HT 1-0	Birmingham Legion FC
30/04/23 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	3-2 HT 0-1	Hartford Athletic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	21	13	5	3	38	20	44
2	Detroit City FC	20	10	5	5	27	17	35
3	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	21	10	3	8	24	21	33
4	Charleston Battery	20	10	3	7	39	27	33
5	Louisville City FC	21	9	4	8	37	36	31
6	Indy Eleven	19	8	4	7	23	22	28
7	Rhode Island FC	19	8	4	7	30	22	28
8	Hartford Athletic	19	5	9	5	15	18	24
9	Miami FC	21	5	7	9	25	34	22
10	Loudoun United FC	20	3	11	6	21	30	20
11	Birmingham Legion FC	19	3	8	8	22	27	17
12	Brooklyn FC	19	3	4	12	18	35	13
13	Sporting JAX	21	2	5	14	26	54	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartford Athletic	Birmingham Legion FC
Miami FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Loudoun United FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Rhode Island FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Louisville City FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham Legion FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartford Athletic

DWDLDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
02/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
26/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
19/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
09/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	17	3	D
05/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
21/06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
14/06	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
31/05	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	8	6	D

Birmingham Legion FC

LDLDDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	0	5	L
03/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
30/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	1	7	L
06/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
03/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
21/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
17/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
04/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
24/05	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartford Athletic win (52%). Probabilities: Hartford Athletic 52%, draw 28%, Birmingham Legion FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Hartford Athletic 1.53 · Birmingham Legion FC 0.87), with a 61% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.