Football · USA USL Championship · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC

Team pages: Lexington SC · Colorado Switchbacks FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Lexington SC1.81

Colorado Switchbacks FC1.3

1X2

48% 25% 26%

Lexington SC Draw Colorado Switchbacks FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lexington SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Colorado Switchbacks FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lexington SC 1–1–1 Colorado Switchbacks FC (3 last)

Colorado Switchbacks FC1-1Lexington SC
Colorado Switchbacks FC3-1Lexington SC
Lexington SC2-1Colorado Switchbacks FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lexington SC 1500 · Colorado Switchbacks FC 1533

	Lexington SC	Draw	Colorado Switchbacks FC
Our model	48%	25%	26%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lexington SC	Colorado Switchbacks FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.4	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:16 +2’	1.85	3.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 1–1–1 Colorado Switchbacks FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 USA USL Championship	Colorado Switchbacks FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Lexington SC
02/08/25 USA USL Championship	Colorado Switchbacks FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Lexington SC
21/06/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	2-1 HT 1-0	Colorado Switchbacks FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Antonio FC	13	5	6	2	18	16	21
2	Orange County SC	12	5	5	2	15	11	20
3	Tulsa	12	5	4	3	16	14	19
4	Oakland Roots	13	4	6	3	19	17	18
5	Phoenix Rising FC	13	4	5	4	16	15	17
6	El Paso Locomotive FC	12	4	4	4	23	22	16
7	Sacramento Republic	11	4	4	3	13	11	16
8	New Mexico United	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	12	4	3	5	18	20	15
10	Lexington SC	12	4	3	5	17	15	15
11	Colorado Switchbacks FC	11	3	4	4	18	18	13
12	Monterey Bay FC	13	3	2	8	13	22	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lexington SC	Colorado Switchbacks FC
San Antonio FC	2-0 W	3-3 D
Monterey Bay FC	3-1 W	4-1 W
Las Vegas Lights FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Orange County SC	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lexington SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
31/05	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
24/05	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	6	6	L
09/05	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
03/05	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	2	8	L
19/04	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/04	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-3	9	2	L
04/04	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
29/03	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
26/03	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-0	4	8	W

Colorado Switchbacks FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
31/05	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
24/05	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
09/05	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
03/05	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-3	1	7	D
18/04	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
04/04	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
28/03	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	2-3	5	8	L
22/03	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
14/03	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lexington SC win (48%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 48%, draw 25%, Colorado Switchbacks FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Lexington SC 1.81 · Colorado Switchbacks FC 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.