Football · USA USL Championship · 30/08, 04:00
Prediction: Monterey Bay FC vs Sacramento Republic
Team pages: Monterey Bay FC · Sacramento Republic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Monterey Bay FC1.1
Sacramento Republic1.3
1X2
Monterey Bay FC
Draw
Sacramento Republic
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Monterey Bay FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Sacramento Republic
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monterey Bay FC
1–3–2
Sacramento Republic
(6 last)
- Sacramento Republic1-1Monterey Bay FC
- Sacramento Republic1-1Monterey Bay FC
- Monterey Bay FC1-0Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic1-0Monterey Bay FC
- Sacramento Republic2-2Monterey Bay FC
- Monterey Bay FC0-2Sacramento Republic
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1433 vs 1518).
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monterey Bay FC | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterey Bay FC 1–3–2 Sacramento Republic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/26 USA USL Cup | Sacramento Republic | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 22/03/26 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 28/09/25 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 10/08/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 10/10/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 09/06/24 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 34 |
| 2 | Orange County SC | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 30 | 34 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 32 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 31 |
| 7 | Lexington SC | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 28 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 26 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising FC | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 26 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 40 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monterey Bay FC | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island FC | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Oakland Roots | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| New Mexico United | 2-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Lexington SC | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Tulsa | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monterey Bay FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-5 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/06 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Sacramento Republic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 06/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
4-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 09/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monterey Bay FC vs Sacramento Republic?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sacramento Republic win (40%). Probabilities: Monterey Bay FC 30%, draw 30%, Sacramento Republic 40%.
How many goals are expected in Monterey Bay FC vs Sacramento Republic?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Monterey Bay FC 1.1 · Sacramento Republic 1.3), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Monterey Bay FC vs Sacramento Republic?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.