Football · USA USL Championship · 30/08, 03:30

Prediction: New Mexico United vs San Antonio FC

Team pages: New Mexico United · San Antonio FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

New Mexico United1.47

San Antonio FC1.11

1X2

45% 27% 28%

New Mexico United Draw San Antonio FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

New Mexico United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLWDD

San Antonio FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWDDWDLW

Head-to-head

New Mexico United 4–1–1 San Antonio FC (6 last)

San Antonio FC1-0New Mexico United
New Mexico United2-0San Antonio FC
San Antonio FC0-1New Mexico United
San Antonio FC2-2New Mexico United
New Mexico United4-2San Antonio FC
San Antonio FC2-3New Mexico United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New Mexico United 1550 · San Antonio FC 1555

	New Mexico United	Draw	San Antonio FC
Our model	44%	28%	27%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New Mexico United: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New Mexico United	San Antonio FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +8’	1.95	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 4–1–1 San Antonio FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA USL Championship	San Antonio FC	1-0 HT 0-0	New Mexico United
02/11/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	2-0 HT 1-0	San Antonio FC
07/09/25 USA USL Championship	San Antonio FC	0-1 HT 0-0	New Mexico United
27/07/25 USA USL Cup	San Antonio FC	2-2 HT 1-0	New Mexico United
22/06/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	4-2 HT 1-0	San Antonio FC
30/06/24 USA USL Championship	San Antonio FC	2-3 HT 2-2	New Mexico United

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Antonio FC	13	5	6	2	18	16	21
2	Orange County SC	12	5	5	2	15	11	20
3	Tulsa	12	5	4	3	16	14	19
4	Oakland Roots	13	4	6	3	19	17	18
5	Phoenix Rising FC	13	4	5	4	16	15	17
6	El Paso Locomotive FC	12	4	4	4	23	22	16
7	Sacramento Republic	11	4	4	3	13	11	16
8	New Mexico United	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	12	4	3	5	18	20	15
10	Lexington SC	12	4	3	5	17	15	15
11	Colorado Switchbacks FC	11	3	4	4	18	18	13
12	Monterey Bay FC	13	3	2	8	13	22	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New Mexico United	San Antonio FC
Orange County SC	1-1 D	0-2 L
El Paso Locomotive FC	2-2 D	3-2 W
Phoenix Rising FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Colorado Switchbacks FC	3-2 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New Mexico United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
31/05	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/05	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
21/05	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	11	L
10/05	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
07/05	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
12/04	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	5	6	L
05/04	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
28/03	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	7	8	W
22/03	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	7	L

San Antonio FC

DLDWDDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
14/06	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
28/05	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-3	4-4	5	5	D
24/05	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	0	9	W
10/05	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
03/05	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-3	6	7	D
19/04	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
12/04	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
09/04	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
05/04	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs San Antonio FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New Mexico United win (45%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 45%, draw 27%, San Antonio FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs San Antonio FC?

The model expects 2.59 goals (New Mexico United 1.47 · San Antonio FC 1.11), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs San Antonio FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.