Football · USA USL Championship · 29/08, 23:00

Prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

Team pages: Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Tampa Bay Rowdies

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.07

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.28

1X2

30% 29% 41%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Draw Tampa Bay Rowdies

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWLWWW

Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies (6 last)

Tampa Bay Rowdies3-0Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Tampa Bay Rowdies2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0-0Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies0-2Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1548 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1593

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Draw	Tampa Bay Rowdies
Our model	29%	30%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1548 vs 1593).
H2H favours Tampa Bay Rowdies: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Tampa Bay Rowdies
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	3.3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +1’	2.90	3.20	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	3-0 HT 1-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
31/08/25 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2-1 HT 0-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
22/06/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-1 HT 2-1	Tampa Bay Rowdies
15/09/24 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2-1 HT 0-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
07/04/24 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-0 HT 0-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
08/10/23 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-2 HT 0-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	13	8	4	1	21	8	28
2	Detroit City FC	13	6	3	4	19	13	21
3	Louisville City FC	14	6	3	5	24	22	21
4	Charleston Battery	12	6	2	4	21	16	20
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	11	6	1	4	15	13	19
6	Indy Eleven	11	5	3	3	16	12	18
7	Hartford Athletic	11	4	5	2	10	10	17
8	Miami FC	13	4	5	4	15	19	17
9	Rhode Island FC	11	4	3	4	21	15	15
10	Birmingham Legion FC	12	2	6	4	13	15	12
11	Loudoun United FC	11	1	6	4	13	21	9
12	Brooklyn FC	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
13	Sporting JAX	13	0	3	10	15	34	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Tampa Bay Rowdies
Indy Eleven	1-0 W	1-0 W
Louisville City FC	2-0 W	5-4 W
Phoenix Rising FC	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

WLWDLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
31/05	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
10/05	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
03/05	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/04	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/04	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
05/04	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
29/03	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
22/03	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
14/03	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	5	4	W

Tampa Bay Rowdies

DDWDWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-3	5-4	5	1	W
14/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	15	2	L
11/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
31/05	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
24/05	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-0	3	0	W
21/05	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	7	11	W
10/05	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
03/05	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/04	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/04	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	2-1	2-2	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tampa Bay Rowdies win (41%). Probabilities: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 30%, draw 29%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 41%.

How many goals are expected in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.07 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.