Football · USA USL Championship · 27/09, 03:00
Prediction: New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic
Team pages: New Mexico United · Sacramento Republic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
New Mexico United1.52
Sacramento Republic0.92
1X2
New Mexico United
Draw
Sacramento Republic
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
New Mexico United
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Sacramento Republic
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New Mexico United
2–4
Sacramento Republic
(6 last)
- Sacramento Republic0-1New Mexico United
- New Mexico United0-2Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic2-1New Mexico United
- Sacramento Republic4-0New Mexico United
- New Mexico United3-1Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic1-0New Mexico United
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.5 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 2–0–4 Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 HT 0-0 | New Mexico United |
| 31/08/25 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 09/03/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 2-1 HT 1-1 | New Mexico United |
| 30/09/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 4-0 HT 2-0 | New Mexico United |
| 19/09/24 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 22/10/23 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 1-0 HT 1-0 | New Mexico United |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 46 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 43 |
| 3 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 38 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 30 | 37 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 37 |
| 6 | Orange County SC | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 40 | 36 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 36 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | 33 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 33 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 27 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 18 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Lexington SC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Tulsa | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Monterey Bay FC | 5-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: New Mexico United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New Mexico United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 27/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 06/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
4-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New Mexico United win (50%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 50%, draw 28%, Sacramento Republic 22%.
How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
The model expects 2.44 goals (New Mexico United 1.52 · Sacramento Republic 0.92), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.