Football · USA USL Championship · 27/09, 04:00

Prediction: Monterey Bay FC vs Lexington SC

Team pages: Monterey Bay FC · Lexington SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Monterey Bay FC1.24

Lexington SC1.65

1X2

28% 27% 46%

Monterey Bay FC Draw Lexington SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Monterey Bay FC 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLDDL

Lexington SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Monterey Bay FC 1–1–2 Lexington SC (4 last)

Lexington SC3-2Monterey Bay FC
Lexington SC3-1Monterey Bay FC
Monterey Bay FC2-1Lexington SC
Lexington SC0-0Monterey Bay FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1415 vs 1532).
H2H favours Lexington SC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monterey Bay FC	Lexington SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	3.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.94

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.16 → 3.16	Pinn 3.16
X	3.56 → 3.56	Pinn 3.56
2	2.13 → 2.13	Pinn 2.13

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +480’	3.16	3.56	2.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterey Bay FC 1–1–2 Lexington SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	3-2 HT 2-2	Monterey Bay FC
09/05/26 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	3-1 HT 2-0	Monterey Bay FC
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Monterey Bay FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Lexington SC
20/04/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Monterey Bay FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	25	14	4	7	44	31	46
2	New Mexico United	24	12	7	5	37	27	43
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	25	11	5	9	40	37	38
4	Lexington SC	25	11	4	10	43	30	37
5	Tulsa	24	10	7	7	29	23	37
6	Orange County SC	25	9	9	7	34	40	36
7	Sacramento Republic	23	9	9	5	30	20	36
8	San Antonio FC	24	9	9	6	29	28	36
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	25	9	6	10	32	35	33
10	Phoenix Rising FC	25	8	9	8	35	35	33
11	Oakland Roots	24	6	9	9	29	35	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	25	4	6	15	25	43	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monterey Bay FC	Lexington SC
Phoenix Rising FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sacramento Republic	1-1 D	0-1 L
Oakland Roots	1-1 D	4-1 W
New Mexico United	2-5 L	1-2 L
Orange County SC	1-2 L	6-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monterey Bay FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
06/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
23/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	3	8	L
16/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-1	2-5	12	3	L
06/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
02/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	4	L
26/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
19/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	3	4	L

Lexington SC

DWWLWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	4-0	6-0	5	2	W
13/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	1	2	W
06/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
27/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
16/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	11	4	W
26/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monterey Bay FC vs Lexington SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lexington SC win (46%). Probabilities: Monterey Bay FC 28%, draw 27%, Lexington SC 46%.

How many goals are expected in Monterey Bay FC vs Lexington SC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Monterey Bay FC 1.24 · Lexington SC 1.65), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Monterey Bay FC vs Lexington SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.