Football · USA USL Championship · 27/09, 04:00

Prediction: Oakland Roots vs Phoenix Rising FC

Team pages: Oakland Roots · Phoenix Rising FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Oakland Roots1.56

Phoenix Rising FC1.65

1X2

35% 25% 39%

Oakland Roots Draw Phoenix Rising FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Oakland Roots 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDWDL

Phoenix Rising FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Oakland Roots 1–2–3 Phoenix Rising FC (6 last)

Phoenix Rising FC3-4Oakland Roots
Phoenix Rising FC2-2Oakland Roots
Phoenix Rising FC3-3Oakland Roots
Oakland Roots1-2Phoenix Rising FC
Oakland Roots0-1Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC1-0Oakland Roots

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Phoenix Rising FC (rating 1437 vs 1506).
H2H favours Phoenix Rising FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oakland Roots	Phoenix Rising FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.1	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.21 → 2.21	Pinn 2.21
X	3.55 → 3.55	Pinn 3.55
2	3.02 → 3.02	Pinn 3.02

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13	2.21	3.55	3.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oakland Roots 1–2–3 Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	3-4 HT 0-0	Oakland Roots
22/03/26 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	2-2 HT 0-2	Oakland Roots
28/09/25 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	3-3 HT 1-3	Oakland Roots
13/07/25 USA USL Championship	Oakland Roots	1-2 HT 1-0	Phoenix Rising FC
13/10/24 USA USL Championship	Oakland Roots	0-1 HT 0-0	Phoenix Rising FC
24/03/24 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Oakland Roots

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	25	14	4	7	44	31	46
2	New Mexico United	24	12	7	5	37	27	43
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	25	11	5	9	40	37	38
4	Lexington SC	25	11	4	10	43	30	37
5	Tulsa	24	10	7	7	29	23	37
6	Orange County SC	25	9	9	7	34	40	36
7	Sacramento Republic	23	9	9	5	30	20	36
8	San Antonio FC	24	9	9	6	29	28	36
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	25	9	6	10	32	35	33
10	Phoenix Rising FC	25	8	9	8	35	35	33
11	Oakland Roots	24	6	9	9	29	35	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	25	4	6	15	25	43	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oakland Roots	Phoenix Rising FC
Lexington SC	1-4 L	0-1 L
Monterey Bay FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
El Paso Locomotive FC	0-1 L	1-3 L
Las Vegas Lights FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Sacramento Republic	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oakland Roots

LLLLDLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-4	11	2	L
30/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	13	5	D
23/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
16/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	11	5	D
09/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
06/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
02/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
26/07	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
23/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
05/07	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	3	5	L

Phoenix Rising FC

WDDLWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	6	8	L
13/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
06/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
20/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
09/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
02/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
26/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
19/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oakland Roots vs Phoenix Rising FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Phoenix Rising FC win (39%). Probabilities: Oakland Roots 35%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Oakland Roots vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Oakland Roots 1.56 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.65), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Oakland Roots vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.