Football · USA USL Championship · 20/09, 01:00

Prediction: Lexington SC vs Orange County SC

Team pages: Lexington SC · Orange County SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Lexington SC1.9

Orange County SC1.01

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Lexington SC Draw Orange County SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lexington SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLLLW

Orange County SC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLLDDL

Head-to-head

Lexington SC 0–3–0 Orange County SC (3 last)

Orange County SC0-0Lexington SC
Lexington SC1-1Orange County SC
Orange County SC2-2Lexington SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lexington SC 1516 · Orange County SC 1442

	Lexington SC	Draw	Orange County SC
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1516 vs 1442).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lexington SC	Orange County SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.59
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.15 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +2’	1.57	3.75	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +33’	1.58	4.10	4.80
05:15 +29’	1.59▲	4.15▲	4.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 0–3–0 Orange County SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Lexington SC
13/09/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	1-1 HT 0-1	Orange County SC
16/03/25 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	2-2 HT 1-1	Lexington SC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	24	13	4	7	41	30	43
2	New Mexico United	22	12	5	5	33	23	41
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	24	11	4	9	40	37	37
4	Tulsa	23	10	6	7	27	21	36
5	Sacramento Republic	23	9	9	5	30	20	36
6	Orange County SC	24	9	9	6	34	34	36
7	San Antonio FC	24	9	9	6	29	28	36
8	Lexington SC	24	10	4	10	37	30	34
9	Phoenix Rising FC	24	8	9	7	34	32	33
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	24	9	5	10	31	34	32
11	Oakland Roots	24	6	9	9	29	35	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	24	4	6	14	25	42	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lexington SC	Orange County SC
Oakland Roots	4-1 W	1-1 D
Las Vegas Lights FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Sacramento Republic	0-1 L	1-1 D
Monterey Bay FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Tulsa	0-0 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lexington SC

WDWWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	1	2	W
06/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
27/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
16/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	11	4	W
26/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
23/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	3	5	W

Orange County SC

DDWWLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
06/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
16/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
09/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
02/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
26/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
09/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
05/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs Orange County SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lexington SC win (57%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 57%, draw 24%, Orange County SC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs Orange County SC?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Lexington SC 1.9 · Orange County SC 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs Orange County SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.