Football · USA USL Championship · 20/09, 01:30

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion FC

Team pages: Tampa Bay Rowdies · Birmingham Legion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Tampa Bay Rowdies2.37

Birmingham Legion FC1

1X2

67% 19% 14%

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw Birmingham Legion FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLDWL

Birmingham Legion FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–2–2 Birmingham Legion FC (6 last)

Birmingham Legion FC0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
Birmingham Legion FC1-4Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies2-2Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC2-0Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies0-1Birmingham Legion FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies4-4Birmingham Legion FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1559 · Birmingham Legion FC 1441

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Draw	Birmingham Legion FC
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1559 vs 1441).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Birmingham Legion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/90/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +13’	1.33	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–2–2 Birmingham Legion FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
17/09/25 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-4 HT 1-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
04/05/25 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2-2 HT 1-0	Birmingham Legion FC
12/09/24 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
12/05/24 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-1 HT 0-0	Birmingham Legion FC
09/05/24 USA US Open Cup	Tampa Bay Rowdies	4-4 HT 3-0	Birmingham Legion FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	24	14	6	4	41	23	48
2	Charleston Battery	24	12	4	8	49	31	40
3	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	25	11	5	9	28	25	38
4	Detroit City FC	23	10	7	6	28	19	37
5	Hartford Athletic	23	8	10	5	24	23	34
6	Louisville City FC	24	9	6	9	39	39	33
7	Rhode Island FC	22	9	5	8	34	24	32
8	Indy Eleven	22	8	6	8	28	28	30
9	Miami FC	24	5	9	10	28	42	24
10	Loudoun United FC	23	3	11	9	26	40	20
11	Birmingham Legion FC	22	3	10	9	28	34	19
12	Brooklyn FC	22	4	5	13	23	39	17
13	Sporting JAX	24	3	5	16	30	63	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Birmingham Legion FC
Hartford Athletic	1-3 L	2-3 L
Detroit City FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Rhode Island FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Louisville City FC	5-4 W	1-2 L
Miami FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Loudoun United FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tampa Bay Rowdies (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tampa Bay Rowdies

LDWWWWLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	5	10	L
06/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
29/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
09/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
02/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-3	5-4	5	1	W
26/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-2	3	9	W
19/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
05/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	12	3	L

Birmingham Legion FC

DLDLWLLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	1	3	D
06/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
23/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	2-3	5	2	L
16/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	0	5	L
03/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
30/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	1	7	L
06/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
03/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
21/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (67%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 67%, draw 19%, Birmingham Legion FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.37 · Birmingham Legion FC 1), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.