Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 02:00
Prediction: El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United
Team pages: El Paso Locomotive FC · New Mexico United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.22Total
El Paso Locomotive FC1.97
New Mexico United1.24
1X2
El Paso Locomotive FC
Draw
New Mexico United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
El Paso Locomotive FC
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
New Mexico United
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
El Paso Locomotive FC
2–2–2
New Mexico United
(6 last)
- El Paso Locomotive FC0-2New Mexico United
- New Mexico United2-2El Paso Locomotive FC
- New Mexico United0-4El Paso Locomotive FC
- El Paso Locomotive FC3-0New Mexico United
- New Mexico United2-2El Paso Locomotive FC
- New Mexico United1-0El Paso Locomotive FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · El Paso Locomotive FC 1564 · New Mexico United 1506
| El Paso Locomotive FC | Draw | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El Paso Locomotive FC (rating 1564 vs 1506).
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Paso Locomotive FC | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.1 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Paso Locomotive FC 2–2–2 New Mexico United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 USA USL Cup | El Paso Locomotive FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | New Mexico United |
| 07/05/26 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 2-2 HT 2-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
| 02/04/26 USA US Open Cup | New Mexico United | 0-4 HT 0-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
| 04/05/25 USA USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | New Mexico United |
| 17/04/25 USA US Open Cup | New Mexico United | 2-2 HT 1-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
| 22/03/25 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 39 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 36 | 47 |
| 5 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 43 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 29 | 42 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 42 | 43 | 39 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 47 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 46 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | 21 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Paso Locomotive FC | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Tulsa | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| San Antonio FC | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: El Paso Locomotive FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Paso Locomotive FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/10 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 13/09 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 27/08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
New Mexico United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/10 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 01/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a El Paso Locomotive FC win (53%). Probabilities: El Paso Locomotive FC 53%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 23%.
How many goals are expected in El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United?
The model expects 3.22 goals (El Paso Locomotive FC 1.97 · New Mexico United 1.24), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.