Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 03:00
Prediction: Phoenix Rising FC vs Lexington SC
Team pages: Phoenix Rising FC · Lexington SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Phoenix Rising FC1.75
Lexington SC1.59
1X2
Phoenix Rising FC
Draw
Lexington SC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Phoenix Rising FC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Lexington SC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Phoenix Rising FC
0–3
Lexington SC
(3 last)
- Lexington SC1-0Phoenix Rising FC
- Lexington SC2-0Phoenix Rising FC
- Phoenix Rising FC0-1Lexington SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Phoenix Rising FC 1513 · Lexington SC 1558
| Phoenix Rising FC | Draw | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1513 vs 1558).
- H2H favours Lexington SC: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Phoenix Rising FC | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.7 | 2.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 3.4 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Phoenix Rising FC 0–0–3 Lexington SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 10/08/25 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 05/07/25 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lexington SC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 39 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 36 | 47 |
| 5 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 43 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 29 | 42 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 42 | 43 | 39 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 47 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 46 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | 21 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Phoenix Rising FC | Lexington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 3-1 W | 6-0 W |
| Las Vegas Lights FC | 3-2 W | 5-3 W |
| New Mexico United | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Oakland Roots | 0-3 L | 4-1 W |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Tulsa | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Monterey Bay FC | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 05/10 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 27/09 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 20/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 5-3 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/10 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
4-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 27/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Phoenix Rising FC vs Lexington SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Phoenix Rising FC win (41%). Probabilities: Phoenix Rising FC 41%, draw 25%, Lexington SC 34%.
How many goals are expected in Phoenix Rising FC vs Lexington SC?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Phoenix Rising FC 1.75 · Lexington SC 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Phoenix Rising FC vs Lexington SC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.