Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 03:00
Prediction: Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC
Team pages: Monterey Bay FC · Las Vegas Lights FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Monterey Bay FC1.55
Las Vegas Lights FC1.55
1X2
Monterey Bay FC
Draw
Las Vegas Lights FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Monterey Bay FC
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Las Vegas Lights FC
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monterey Bay FC
1–2–3
Las Vegas Lights FC
(6 last)
- Monterey Bay FC2-3Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC1-0Monterey Bay FC
- Monterey Bay FC1-1Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC2-0Monterey Bay FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC0-0Monterey Bay FC
- Monterey Bay FC3-1Las Vegas Lights FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monterey Bay FC 1421 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1477
| Monterey Bay FC | Draw | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Vegas Lights FC (rating 1421 vs 1477).
- H2H favours Las Vegas Lights FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monterey Bay FC | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.8 | 1.7 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterey Bay FC 1–2–3 Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 USA USL Cup | Monterey Bay FC | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 29/03/26 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 26/10/25 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 15/06/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 15/09/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 14/04/24 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 39 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 36 | 47 |
| 5 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 43 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 29 | 42 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 42 | 43 | 39 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 47 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 46 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | 21 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monterey Bay FC | Las Vegas Lights FC |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Orange County SC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Lexington SC | 2-3 L | 3-5 L |
| Charleston Battery | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Sacramento Republic | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Monterey Bay FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-5 | 12 | 3 | L |
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 3-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/10 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/10 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 20/09 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monterey Bay FC win (37%). Probabilities: Monterey Bay FC 37%, draw 25%, Las Vegas Lights FC 37%.
How many goals are expected in Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Monterey Bay FC 1.55 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1.55), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.