Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 03:00
Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots
Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Oakland Roots
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Sacramento Republic1.73
Oakland Roots0.78
1X2
Sacramento Republic
Draw
Oakland Roots
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sacramento Republic
4-6-0 (W-D-L)
Oakland Roots
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sacramento Republic
4–1–1
Oakland Roots
(6 last)
- Oakland Roots1-3Sacramento Republic
- Oakland Roots0-1Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic3-3Oakland Roots
- Oakland Roots0-1Sacramento Republic
- Oakland Roots2-5Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic2-3Oakland Roots
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sacramento Republic 1584 · Oakland Roots 1507
| Sacramento Republic | Draw | Oakland Roots | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1584 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sacramento Republic | Oakland Roots | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.9 | 3 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 4–1–1 Oakland Roots
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Sacramento Republic |
| 17/05/26 USA USL Cup | Oakland Roots | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 17/08/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Oakland Roots |
| 05/05/25 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 21/07/24 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 2-5 HT 0-3 | Sacramento Republic |
| 16/06/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Oakland Roots |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 39 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 36 | 47 |
| 5 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 43 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 29 | 42 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 42 | 43 | 39 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 47 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 46 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | 21 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sacramento Republic | Oakland Roots |
|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Tulsa | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| San Antonio FC | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Orange County SC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Monterey Bay FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 6 D 0 L | 2 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Oakland Roots (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/10 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
Oakland Roots
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/10 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/10 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 27/09 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-4 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (59%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 59%, draw 25%, Oakland Roots 16%.
How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.73 · Oakland Roots 0.78), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.