Football · USA USL Championship · 18/10, 01:00

Prediction: Louisville City FC vs Indy Eleven

Team pages: Louisville City FC · Indy Eleven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Louisville City FC1.89

Indy Eleven1.03

1X2

56% 24% 19%

Louisville City FC Draw Indy Eleven

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Louisville City FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDLWDW

Indy Eleven 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Louisville City FC 4–1–1 Indy Eleven (6 last)

Indy Eleven2-1Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC2-0Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven1-3Louisville City FC
Indy Eleven2-2Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC5-3Indy Eleven
Louisville City FC2-0Indy Eleven

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Louisville City FC (rating 1535 vs 1461).
H2H favours Louisville City FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Louisville City FC	Indy Eleven
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:38

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.66 → 1.68▲	Pinn 1.68
X	4.07 → 4.13▲	Pinn 4.13
2	4.24 → 4.30▲	Pinn 4.30

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +4’	1.66	4.07	4.24
02:14 +24’	1.68▲	4.13▲	4.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Louisville City FC 4–1–1 Indy Eleven

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	2-1 HT 1-0	Louisville City FC
05/10/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Indy Eleven
31/08/25 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	1-3 HT 1-1	Louisville City FC
06/10/24 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	2-2 HT 1-1	Louisville City FC
06/04/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	5-3 HT 2-1	Indy Eleven
30/07/23 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Indy Eleven

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	16	7	5	49	26	55
2	Detroit City FC	28	14	8	6	34	20	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	14	4	9	52	33	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	12	5	11	30	28	41
5	Louisville City FC	27	11	7	9	45	42	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	9	12	6	30	28	39
7	Rhode Island FC	27	11	5	11	39	30	38
8	Miami FC	29	9	9	11	38	47	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	9	7	12	34	36	34
10	Loudoun United FC	27	5	12	10	34	44	27
11	Birmingham Legion FC	26	4	11	11	36	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	27	4	6	17	27	55	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	32	73	14

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Louisville City FC	Indy Eleven
Loudoun United FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rhode Island FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Tampa Bay Rowdies	4-5 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Louisville City FC

LDWLDDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
26/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-5	2	1	L

Indy Eleven

WLDDWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	1-3	5	4	L
04/10	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
01/10	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
27/09	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
20/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	3-0	4-0	3	2	W
12/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
06/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	9	2	D
30/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
23/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Louisville City FC vs Indy Eleven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Louisville City FC win (56%). Probabilities: Louisville City FC 56%, draw 24%, Indy Eleven 19%.

How many goals are expected in Louisville City FC vs Indy Eleven?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Louisville City FC 1.89 · Indy Eleven 1.03), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Louisville City FC vs Indy Eleven?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.