Football · USA USL Championship · 18/10, 01:30

Prediction: Rhode Island FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Team pages: Rhode Island FC · Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Rhode Island FC1.28

Pittsburgh Riverhounds0.69

1X2

50% 29% 20%

Rhode Island FC Draw Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Rhode Island FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLLWWL

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDDWLLW

Head-to-head

Rhode Island FC 2–4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds (6 last)

Pittsburgh Riverhounds0-1Rhode Island FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1-0Rhode Island FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2-0Rhode Island FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0-1Rhode Island FC
Rhode Island FC0-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2-0Rhode Island FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rhode Island FC 1502 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1507

	Rhode Island FC	Draw	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Our model	49%	32%	19%
Market	51%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rhode Island FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.25

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +4’	1.73	3.25	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rhode Island FC 2–0–4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-1 HT 0-0	Rhode Island FC
16/11/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-0 HT 0-0	Rhode Island FC
03/08/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-0 HT 0-0	Rhode Island FC
01/06/25 USA USL Cup	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-1 HT 0-1	Rhode Island FC
24/05/25 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
08/09/24 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-0 HT 1-0	Rhode Island FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	16	7	5	49	26	55
2	Detroit City FC	28	14	8	6	34	20	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	14	4	9	52	33	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	12	5	11	30	28	41
5	Louisville City FC	27	11	7	9	45	42	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	9	12	6	30	28	39
7	Rhode Island FC	27	11	5	11	39	30	38
8	Miami FC	29	9	9	11	38	47	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	9	7	12	34	36	34
10	Loudoun United FC	27	5	12	10	34	44	27
11	Birmingham Legion FC	26	4	11	11	36	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	27	4	6	17	27	55	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	32	73	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rhode Island FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Detroit City FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Brooklyn FC	3-1 W	1-0 W
Charleston Battery	0-2 L	3-1 W
Miami FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rhode Island FC

LWLDWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
04/10	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
01/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
27/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
20/09	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
13/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
06/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
30/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
23/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	9	8	W
16/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	3	4	L

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

DWWLDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
27/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
20/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
13/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/09	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
27/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
23/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
16/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-1	3-1	6	7	W
09/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rhode Island FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rhode Island FC win (50%). Probabilities: Rhode Island FC 50%, draw 29%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 20%.

How many goals are expected in Rhode Island FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Rhode Island FC 1.28 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0.69), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rhode Island FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.