Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 18/07, 20:00
Prediction: Club Mercedes vs El Porvenir
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.69Total
Club Mercedes0.88
El Porvenir0.81
1X2
Club Mercedes
Draw
El Porvenir
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Club Mercedes
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
El Porvenir
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Mercedes
1–3–2
El Porvenir
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Mercedes 1515 · El Porvenir 1502
| Club Mercedes | Draw | El Porvenir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| Market | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.69 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours El Porvenir: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Mercedes | El Porvenir | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.1 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.7 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Mercedes 1–3–2 El Porvenir
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | El Porvenir | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Club Mercedes |
| 27/06/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Club Mercedes | 0-0 HT 0-0 | El Porvenir |
| 18/03/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | El Porvenir | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Club Mercedes |
| 11/09/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Club Mercedes | 1-0 HT 0-0 | El Porvenir |
| 10/04/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | El Porvenir | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Club Mercedes |
| 06/11/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | El Porvenir | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Club Mercedes |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canuelas FC | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 33 |
| 2 | Lujan | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 33 |
| 3 | Leones de Rosario | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 29 |
| 4 | Yupanqui | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 27 |
| 5 | General Lamadrid | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 27 |
| 6 | Sportivo Barracas | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 25 |
| 7 | Deportivo Espanol | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 25 |
| 8 | El Porvenir | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 25 |
| 9 | CA Atlas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 25 |
| 10 | Central Ballester | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 21 | 22 |
| 11 | CA Claypole | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 21 |
| 12 | Central Cordoba de Rosario | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 20 |
| 13 | Deportivo Muniz | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 18 |
| 14 | Fenix | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 21 | 17 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Mercedes | El Porvenir |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Espanol | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Mercedes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 27/06 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
El Porvenir
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 07/06 | Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (35%). Probabilities: Club Mercedes 34%, draw 35%, El Porvenir 30%.
How many goals are expected in Club Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
The model expects 1.69 goals (Club Mercedes 0.88 · El Porvenir 0.81), with a 52% chance of over 1.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.