Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 17/07, 20:00
Prediction: CA Lugano vs Sportivo Barracas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
CA Lugano1.16
Sportivo Barracas0.92
1X2
CA Lugano
Draw
Sportivo Barracas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CA Lugano
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Sportivo Barracas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Lugano
1–2–3
Sportivo Barracas
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1497 · Sportivo Barracas 1505
| CA Lugano | Draw | Sportivo Barracas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 33% | 27% |
| Market | 40% | 33% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sportivo Barracas: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 13.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Lugano | Sportivo Barracas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.4 | 1.6 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.8 / 0.5 | 6.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 1–2–3 Sportivo Barracas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Sportivo Barracas | 3-0 HT 2-0 | CA Lugano |
| 16/09/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Sportivo Barracas | 2-1 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
| 14/04/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Barracas |
| 30/10/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Sportivo Barracas | 3-2 HT 0-2 | CA Lugano |
| 16/07/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Barracas |
| 28/05/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Sportivo Barracas | 1-3 HT 0-2 | CA Lugano |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canuelas FC | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 33 |
| 2 | Lujan | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 33 |
| 3 | Leones de Rosario | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 29 |
| 4 | Yupanqui | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 27 |
| 5 | General Lamadrid | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 27 |
| 6 | Sportivo Barracas | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 25 |
| 7 | Deportivo Espanol | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 25 |
| 8 | El Porvenir | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 25 |
| 9 | CA Atlas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 25 |
| 10 | Central Ballester | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 21 | 22 |
| 11 | CA Claypole | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 21 |
| 12 | Central Cordoba de Rosario | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 20 |
| 13 | Deportivo Muniz | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 18 |
| 14 | Fenix | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 21 | 17 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 10/05 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
Sportivo Barracas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 06/07 | Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 29/06 | Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/06 | General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 12 | W |
| 06/06 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 11/05 | Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 04/05 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Sportivo Barracas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Lugano win (40%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 40%, draw 33%, Sportivo Barracas 27%.
How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Sportivo Barracas?
The model expects 2.08 goals (CA Lugano 1.16 · Sportivo Barracas 0.92), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Sportivo Barracas?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.