Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 26/09, 00:00

Prediction: CA Ituzaingo vs Defensores Unidos

Team pages: CA Ituzaingo · Defensores Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

CA Ituzaingo1.03

Defensores Unidos1.01

1X2

35% 32% 34%

CA Ituzaingo Draw Defensores Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Ituzaingo 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DDLDDLLLDL

Defensores Unidos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWDDWL

Head-to-head

CA Ituzaingo 0–2–3 Defensores Unidos (5 last)

Defensores Unidos2-1CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo1-1Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos1-1CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo0-1Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos1-0CA Ituzaingo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Ituzaingo 1429 · Defensores Unidos 1505

	CA Ituzaingo	Draw	Defensores Unidos
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	35%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensores Unidos (rating 1429 vs 1505).
H2H favours Defensores Unidos: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Ituzaingo	Defensores Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90
2	2.30 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +2’	3.00	3.00	2.30
17:07 +6’	2.55▼	2.90▼	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Ituzaingo 0–2–3 Defensores Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-1 HT 1-1	CA Ituzaingo
10/07/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-1 HT 0-0	Defensores Unidos
12/03/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-1 HT 0-1	CA Ituzaingo
27/02/18 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	0-1 HT 0-1	Defensores Unidos
24/09/17 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	36	21	8	7	56	29	71
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	36	18	12	6	48	24	66
3	Talleres Remedios	36	18	10	8	37	19	64
4	Atletico Camioneros	36	17	12	7	42	24	63
5	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	38	21	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	36	16	11	9	41	27	59
7	Real Pilar	36	16	10	10	40	35	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	36	15	9	12	38	38	54
9	Club Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	38	33	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	36	12	12	12	43	47	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	36	11	14	11	35	37	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Argentino Merlo	36	11	11	14	32	36	44
14	Deportivo Merlo	36	10	13	13	36	50	43
15	Villa San Carlos	36	9	14	13	35	39	41
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	29	36	41
17	Deportivo Liniers	36	9	13	14	30	37	40
18	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
19	Defensores Unidos	36	8	13	15	31	38	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	36	7	14	15	21	37	35
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	18	33	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	36	1	12	23	23	58	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Ituzaingo	Defensores Unidos
Club Comunicaciones	2-2 D	0-2 L
CS Dock Sud	0-2 L	3-0 W
Deportivo Merlo	0-0 D	0-0 D
Atletico Camioneros	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sportivo Italiano	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Defensores Unidos (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Ituzaingo

DDLDDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	1-3	3	3	L
12/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
08/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
29/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
25/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
01/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Defensores Unidos

DLLLWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
12/09	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
06/09	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
22/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	6	8	W
16/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
08/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-3	6	7	L
01/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Ituzaingo vs Defensores Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Ituzaingo win (35%). Probabilities: CA Ituzaingo 35%, draw 32%, Defensores Unidos 34%.

How many goals are expected in CA Ituzaingo vs Defensores Unidos?

The model expects 2.04 goals (CA Ituzaingo 1.03 · Defensores Unidos 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Ituzaingo vs Defensores Unidos?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.