Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs CA Brown de Adrogue

Team pages: Deportivo Merlo · CA Brown de Adrogue

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.53Total

Deportivo Merlo0.79

CA Brown de Adrogue0.74

1X2

33% 36% 31%

Deportivo Merlo Draw CA Brown de Adrogue

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 23%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Merlo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLDLWL

CA Brown de Adrogue 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDLDDLDW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Merlo 1–5 CA Brown de Adrogue (6 last)

CA Brown de Adrogue0-1Deportivo Merlo
CA Brown de Adrogue1-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo0-1CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue3-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-3CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue3-1Deportivo Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1465 · CA Brown de Adrogue 1480

	Deportivo Merlo	Draw	CA Brown de Adrogue
Our model	32%	39%	29%
Market	35%	33%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 1.53 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CA Brown de Adrogue: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Merlo	CA Brown de Adrogue
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X2.75

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 1.752.02

Under 1.751.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +6’	2.60	2.75	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 1–0–5 CA Brown de Adrogue

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
23/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
06/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-1 HT 0-1	CA Brown de Adrogue
29/08/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	3-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Merlo
10/04/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-3 HT 0-1	CA Brown de Adrogue
01/10/14 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	3-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	59	29	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	37	19	12	6	50	24	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	40	21	67
4	Villa Dalmine	37	17	13	7	38	21	64
5	Atletico Camioneros	37	17	12	8	42	27	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	43	28	62
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	40	38	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	39	38	57
9	Club Comunicaciones	37	14	12	11	38	33	54
10	Deportivo Laferrere	37	12	12	13	44	49	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	37	11	14	12	37	40	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	36	39	44
14	Argentino Merlo	37	11	11	15	32	37	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	36	51	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	37	9	15	13	29	36	42
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	32	38	40
18	Deportivo Liniers	37	9	13	15	30	39	40
19	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	37	8	14	15	24	37	38
21	UAI Urquiza	37	4	20	13	18	33	32
22	CA Ituzaingo	37	1	12	24	23	59	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Merlo	CA Brown de Adrogue
Atletico Camioneros	0-0 D	3-0 W
Sportivo Italiano	0-4 L	0-0 D
San Martin De Burzaco	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CA Brown de Adrogue (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Merlo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
20/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
06/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
27/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-4	7	1	L
02/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	3	7	D

CA Brown de Adrogue

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
19/09	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
12/09	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
06/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
29/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
25/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
22/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
15/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
08/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
31/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (36%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 33%, draw 36%, CA Brown de Adrogue 31%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model expects 1.53 goals (Deportivo Merlo 0.79 · CA Brown de Adrogue 0.74), with a 58% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.