Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Villa San Carlos vs Arsenal de Sarandi

Team pages: Villa San Carlos · Arsenal de Sarandi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

Villa San Carlos0.71

Arsenal de Sarandi1.33

1X2

19% 30% 51%

Villa San Carlos Draw Arsenal de Sarandi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Villa San Carlos 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLDDDW

Arsenal de Sarandi 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Villa San Carlos 0–1–0 Arsenal de Sarandi (1 last)

Arsenal de Sarandi2-2Villa San Carlos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villa San Carlos 1549 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1537

	Villa San Carlos	Draw	Arsenal de Sarandi
Our model	19%	31%	50%
Market	20%	29%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villa San Carlos	Arsenal de Sarandi
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.10

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:19 +15’	4.50	3.10	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa San Carlos 0–1–0 Arsenal de Sarandi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Arsenal de Sarandi	2-2 HT 0-1	Villa San Carlos

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	59	29	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	37	19	12	6	50	24	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	40	21	67
4	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	38	21	63
5	Atletico Camioneros	37	17	12	8	42	27	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	43	28	62
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	40	38	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	39	38	57
9	Club Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	38	33	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	37	12	12	13	44	49	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	37	11	14	12	37	40	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	36	39	44
14	Argentino Merlo	37	11	11	15	32	37	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	36	51	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	29	36	41
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	32	38	40
18	Deportivo Liniers	37	9	13	15	30	39	40
19	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	37	8	14	15	24	37	38
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	18	33	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	37	1	12	24	23	59	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villa San Carlos	Arsenal de Sarandi
Argentino Merlo	1-0 W	0-0 D
Talleres Remedios	0-0 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Laferrere	1-1 D	1-1 D
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Villa San Carlos (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villa San Carlos

DWWWWLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
12/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
06/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
30/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	12	6	W
23/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
16/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
08/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D

Arsenal de Sarandi

DDLDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	6	7	W
19/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	2	8	W
25/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
22/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
09/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villa San Carlos vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal de Sarandi win (51%). Probabilities: Villa San Carlos 19%, draw 30%, Arsenal de Sarandi 51%.

How many goals are expected in Villa San Carlos vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model expects 2.04 goals (Villa San Carlos 0.71 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Villa San Carlos vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.