Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Real Pilar vs Villa Dalmine

Team pages: Real Pilar · Villa Dalmine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.77Total

Real Pilar0.97

Villa Dalmine0.8

1X2

38% 34% 29%

Real Pilar Draw Villa Dalmine

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Pilar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDLWWL

Villa Dalmine 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDDLLW

Head-to-head

Real Pilar 0–3–0 Villa Dalmine (3 last)

Villa Dalmine1-1Real Pilar
Villa Dalmine1-1Real Pilar
Real Pilar0-0Villa Dalmine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Pilar 1529 · Villa Dalmine 1505

	Real Pilar	Draw	Villa Dalmine
Our model	37%	36%	28%
Market	38%	32%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.77 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Pilar	Villa Dalmine
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:55 +23’	2.30	2.75	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Pilar 0–3–0 Villa Dalmine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Pilar
13/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa Dalmine	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Pilar
22/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	0-0 HT 0-0	Villa Dalmine

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	59	29	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	37	19	12	6	50	24	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	40	21	67
4	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	38	21	63
5	Atletico Camioneros	37	17	12	8	42	27	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	43	28	62
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	40	38	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	39	38	57
9	Club Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	38	33	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	37	12	12	13	44	49	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	37	11	14	12	37	40	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	36	39	44
14	Argentino Merlo	37	11	11	15	32	37	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	36	51	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	29	36	41
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	32	38	40
18	Deportivo Liniers	37	9	13	15	30	39	40
19	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	37	8	14	15	24	37	38
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	18	33	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	37	1	12	24	23	59	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Pilar	Villa Dalmine
Excursionistas	0-3 L	0-3 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	2-1 W	0-1 L
Argentino Merlo	1-0 W	0-0 D
Talleres Remedios	0-2 L	0-0 D
Deportivo Laferrere	1-1 D	2-0 W
CA Brown de Adrogue	2-0 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Armenio	1-0 W	0-1 L
CSD Flandria	0-0 D	2-1 W
Argentino Quilmes	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Pilar

WDDWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
19/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
12/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
05/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
29/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
22/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
15/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
08/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
01/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

Villa Dalmine

DWLWWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	3-1	4	3	W
13/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
05/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
30/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
25/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
22/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
15/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
08/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
01/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Pilar vs Villa Dalmine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Pilar win (38%). Probabilities: Real Pilar 38%, draw 34%, Villa Dalmine 29%.

How many goals are expected in Real Pilar vs Villa Dalmine?

The model expects 1.77 goals (Real Pilar 0.97 · Villa Dalmine 0.8), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Pilar vs Villa Dalmine?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.