Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: UAI Urquiza vs CA Ituzaingo

Team pages: UAI Urquiza · CA Ituzaingo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.89Total

UAI Urquiza1.32

CA Ituzaingo0.57

1X2

55% 29% 16%

UAI Urquiza Draw CA Ituzaingo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

UAI Urquiza 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLDLLWLLD

CA Ituzaingo 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLLDLL

Head-to-head

UAI Urquiza 1–3–1 CA Ituzaingo (5 last)

CA Ituzaingo1-1UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza2-2CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo1-3UAI Urquiza
CA Ituzaingo0-0UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza0-1CA Ituzaingo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UAI Urquiza 1451 · CA Ituzaingo 1424

	UAI Urquiza	Draw	CA Ituzaingo
Our model	54%	31%	15%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UAI Urquiza	CA Ituzaingo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1	0.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	1.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.30

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +13’	1.60	3.30	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UAI Urquiza 1–3–1 CA Ituzaingo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-1 HT 1-0	UAI Urquiza
07/10/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-2 HT 1-0	CA Ituzaingo
03/06/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-3 HT 0-1	UAI Urquiza
25/06/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	0-0 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
26/02/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	59	29	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	37	19	12	6	50	24	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	40	21	67
4	Villa Dalmine	37	17	13	7	38	21	64
5	Atletico Camioneros	37	17	12	8	42	27	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	43	28	62
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	40	38	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	39	38	57
9	Club Comunicaciones	37	14	12	11	38	33	54
10	Deportivo Laferrere	37	12	12	13	44	49	48
11	CS Dock Sud	37	11	14	12	40	39	47
12	San Martin De Burzaco	37	11	14	12	37	40	47
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	36	39	44
14	Argentino Merlo	37	11	11	15	32	37	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	36	51	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	37	9	15	13	29	36	42
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	32	38	40
18	Deportivo Liniers	37	9	13	15	30	39	40
19	CA Brown de Adrogue	37	8	14	15	24	37	38
20	CSD Flandria	37	10	8	19	33	47	38
21	UAI Urquiza	37	4	20	13	18	33	32
22	CA Ituzaingo	37	1	12	24	23	59	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UAI Urquiza	CA Ituzaingo
Villa Dalmine	0-0 D	1-3 L
Excursionistas	1-2 L	1-2 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-2 L	0-2 L
Argentino Merlo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Talleres Remedios	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: UAI Urquiza (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UAI Urquiza

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
12/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
06/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	11	5	L
22/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
08/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
01/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

CA Ituzaingo

DLDDLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
19/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	1-3	3	3	L
12/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
08/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
29/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
25/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
01/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UAI Urquiza vs CA Ituzaingo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UAI Urquiza win (55%). Probabilities: UAI Urquiza 55%, draw 29%, CA Ituzaingo 16%.

How many goals are expected in UAI Urquiza vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model expects 1.89 goals (UAI Urquiza 1.32 · CA Ituzaingo 0.57), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UAI Urquiza vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.