Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 26/09, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs Villa San Carlos

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · Villa San Carlos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.73Total

Argentino Merlo0.91

Villa San Carlos0.82

1X2

35% 35% 30%

Argentino Merlo Draw Villa San Carlos

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDDLDLLW

Villa San Carlos 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLDDD

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 3–1–2 Villa San Carlos (6 last)

Villa San Carlos0-0Argentino Merlo
Villa San Carlos2-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo1-0Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos0-1Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo2-1Villa San Carlos
Argentino Merlo0-1Villa San Carlos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1468 · Villa San Carlos 1543

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	Villa San Carlos
Our model	34%	36%	30%
Market	36%	33%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 1.73 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villa San Carlos (rating 1468 vs 1543).
H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	Villa San Carlos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.8	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +9’	2.50	2.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 3–1–2 Villa San Carlos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	0-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
02/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	2-0 HT 1-0	Argentino Merlo
19/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	1-0 HT 1-0	Villa San Carlos
08/10/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	0-1 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
18/05/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-1 HT 0-1	Villa San Carlos
16/06/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-1 HT 0-1	Villa San Carlos

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	36	21	8	7	56	29	71
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	36	18	12	6	48	24	66
3	Talleres Remedios	36	18	10	8	37	19	64
4	Atletico Camioneros	36	17	12	7	42	24	63
5	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	38	21	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	36	16	11	9	41	27	59
7	Real Pilar	36	16	10	10	40	35	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	36	15	9	12	38	38	54
9	Club Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	38	33	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	36	12	12	12	43	47	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	36	11	14	11	35	37	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Argentino Merlo	36	11	11	14	32	36	44
14	Deportivo Merlo	36	10	13	13	36	50	43
15	Villa San Carlos	36	9	14	13	35	39	41
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	29	36	41
17	Deportivo Liniers	36	9	13	14	30	37	40
18	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
19	Defensores Unidos	36	8	13	15	31	38	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	36	7	14	15	21	37	35
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	18	33	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	36	1	12	23	23	58	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Merlo	Villa San Carlos
Talleres Remedios	2-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Laferrere	1-3 L	1-1 D
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Villa San Carlos (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

LLWDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
06/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
30/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

Villa San Carlos

WDWWWWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
12/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
06/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
30/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	12	6	W
23/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
16/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
08/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Argentino Merlo win (35%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 35%, draw 35%, Villa San Carlos 30%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?

The model expects 1.73 goals (Argentino Merlo 0.91 · Villa San Carlos 0.82), with a 59% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.