Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 26/09, 01:00
Prediction: Excursionistas vs Real Pilar
Team pages: Excursionistas · Real Pilar
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
Excursionistas1.3
Real Pilar0.99
1X2
Excursionistas
Draw
Real Pilar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Excursionistas
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Real Pilar
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excursionistas
3–1–2
Real Pilar
(6 last)
- Real Pilar0-1Excursionistas
- Real Pilar1-2Excursionistas
- Excursionistas0-0Real Pilar
- Real Pilar2-3Excursionistas
- Excursionistas1-2Real Pilar
- Real Pilar3-1Excursionistas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1568 · Real Pilar 1544
| Excursionistas | Draw | Real Pilar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 32% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Excursionistas: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excursionistas | Real Pilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.2 | 2.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 3–1–2 Real Pilar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Excursionistas |
| 16/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Excursionistas |
| 30/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Real Pilar |
| 10/06/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Excursionistas |
| 07/02/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Real Pilar |
| 24/09/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Excursionistas |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 36 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 56 | 29 | 71 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 36 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 48 | 24 | 66 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 37 | 19 | 64 |
| 4 | Atletico Camioneros | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 42 | 24 | 63 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 38 | 21 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 41 | 27 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 36 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 35 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 38 | 54 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 38 | 33 | 53 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 47 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 36 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 35 | 37 | 47 |
| 12 | CS Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 38 | 38 | 44 |
| 13 | Argentino Merlo | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 36 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 36 | 50 | 43 |
| 15 | Villa San Carlos | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 35 | 39 | 41 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 29 | 36 | 41 |
| 17 | Deportivo Liniers | 36 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 30 | 37 | 40 |
| 18 | CSD Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 32 | 45 | 38 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 31 | 38 | 37 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 36 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 37 | 35 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 33 | 31 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 36 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 23 | 58 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Excursionistas | Real Pilar |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal de Sarandi | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Argentino Merlo | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Talleres Remedios | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Laferrere | 5-3 W | 1-1 D |
| CA Brown de Adrogue | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Armenio | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| CSD Flandria | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excursionistas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 13/09 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 08/09 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 26/08 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 5-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Real Pilar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 25/08 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (42%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 42%, draw 31%, Real Pilar 27%.
How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Excursionistas 1.3 · Real Pilar 0.99), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Real Pilar?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.