Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 12/09, 01:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs Real Pilar

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · Real Pilar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Argentino Merlo0.69

Real Pilar1.29

1X2

19% 30% 51%

Argentino Merlo Draw Real Pilar

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDDLDL

Real Pilar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDWWDL

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 1–3–2 Real Pilar (6 last)

Real Pilar1-1Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo0-1Real Pilar
Real Pilar3-1Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo1-0Real Pilar
Real Pilar1-1Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo2-2Real Pilar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1452 · Real Pilar 1511

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	Real Pilar
Our model	19%	32%	50%
Market	20%	29%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Pilar (rating 1452 vs 1511).
H2H favours Real Pilar: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	Real Pilar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.9	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.10

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:45 +28’	4.50	3.10	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 1–3–2 Real Pilar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	1-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Merlo
27/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Pilar
08/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	3-1 HT 1-0	Argentino Merlo
10/07/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Pilar
06/03/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Real Pilar	1-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Merlo
31/07/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-2 HT 1-2	Real Pilar

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	34	19	8	7	51	28	65
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	34	17	12	5	45	22	63
3	Atletico Camioneros	34	17	12	5	40	20	63
4	Talleres Remedios	34	18	9	7	37	17	63
5	Villa Dalmine	34	16	12	6	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	34	16	10	8	41	26	58
7	Real Pilar	34	14	10	10	37	34	52
8	Club Comunicaciones	34	13	10	11	34	31	49
9	Deportivo Armenio	34	13	9	12	35	37	48
10	Deportivo Laferrere	34	12	11	11	41	44	47
11	CS Dock Sud	34	10	13	11	38	35	43
12	Argentino Merlo	34	10	11	13	30	34	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	34	9	14	11	31	36	41
14	Deportivo Merlo	34	9	13	12	34	48	40
15	Villa San Carlos	34	9	12	13	34	38	39
16	Argentino Quilmes	34	8	13	13	28	36	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	34	8	13	13	27	35	37
18	CSD Flandria	34	9	8	17	29	42	35
19	Defensores Unidos	34	7	13	14	28	36	34
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	34	7	13	14	21	35	34
21	UAI Urquiza	34	4	19	11	17	29	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	34	1	11	22	20	53	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Merlo	Real Pilar
Talleres Remedios	2-1 W	0-2 L
Deportivo Laferrere	1-3 L	1-1 D
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	2-0 W
Deportivo Armenio	2-2 D	1-0 W
CSD Flandria	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

LDLLWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
30/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
14/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Real Pilar

LLWWDDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
29/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
22/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
15/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
08/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
01/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
25/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	3	8	W
18/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	2-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs Real Pilar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Pilar win (51%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 19%, draw 30%, Real Pilar 51%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs Real Pilar?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Argentino Merlo 0.69 · Real Pilar 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs Real Pilar?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.