Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Arsenal de Sarandi vs UAI Urquiza

Team pages: Arsenal de Sarandi · UAI Urquiza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.7Total

Arsenal de Sarandi1.29

UAI Urquiza0.41

1X2

60% 28% 12%

Arsenal de Sarandi Draw UAI Urquiza

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 58%

Most likely score

1-0 23%

Recent form · 10 last

Arsenal de Sarandi 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLDWWW

UAI Urquiza 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLDLLW

Head-to-head

Arsenal de Sarandi 1–0 UAI Urquiza (1 last)

UAI Urquiza0-1Arsenal de Sarandi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arsenal de Sarandi 1544 · UAI Urquiza 1451

	Arsenal de Sarandi	Draw	UAI Urquiza
Our model	58%	31%	11%
Market	61%	25%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 1.7 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal de Sarandi (rating 1544 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arsenal de Sarandi	UAI Urquiza
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:50 +1’	1.45	3.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal de Sarandi 1–0–0 UAI Urquiza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-1 HT 0-0	Arsenal de Sarandi

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	34	19	8	7	51	28	65
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	34	17	12	5	45	22	63
3	Atletico Camioneros	34	17	12	5	40	20	63
4	Talleres Remedios	34	18	9	7	37	17	63
5	Villa Dalmine	34	16	12	6	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	34	16	10	8	41	26	58
7	Real Pilar	34	14	10	10	37	34	52
8	Club Comunicaciones	34	13	10	11	34	31	49
9	Deportivo Armenio	34	13	9	12	35	37	48
10	Deportivo Laferrere	34	12	11	11	41	44	47
11	CS Dock Sud	34	10	13	11	38	35	43
12	Argentino Merlo	34	10	11	13	30	34	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	34	9	14	11	31	36	41
14	Deportivo Merlo	34	9	13	12	34	48	40
15	Villa San Carlos	34	9	12	13	34	38	39
16	Argentino Quilmes	34	8	13	13	28	36	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	34	8	13	13	27	35	37
18	CSD Flandria	34	9	8	17	29	42	35
19	Defensores Unidos	34	7	13	14	28	36	34
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	34	7	13	14	21	35	34
21	UAI Urquiza	34	4	19	11	17	29	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	34	1	11	22	20	53	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arsenal de Sarandi	UAI Urquiza
Argentino Merlo	0-0 D	2-0 W
Talleres Remedios	0-1 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Laferrere	1-1 D	0-2 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Armenio	0-0 D	0-1 L
CSD Flandria	1-0 W	1-1 D
Argentino Quilmes	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Arsenal de Sarandi (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arsenal de Sarandi

LWDDDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	2	8	W
25/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
22/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
09/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
18/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	9	L

UAI Urquiza

DLDDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	11	5	L
22/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
08/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
01/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
25/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
18/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
14/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arsenal de Sarandi vs UAI Urquiza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal de Sarandi win (60%). Probabilities: Arsenal de Sarandi 60%, draw 28%, UAI Urquiza 12%.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal de Sarandi vs UAI Urquiza?

The model expects 1.7 goals (Arsenal de Sarandi 1.29 · UAI Urquiza 0.41), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal de Sarandi vs UAI Urquiza?

The model gives a 58% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.