Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 06/09, 20:00

Prediction: UAI Urquiza vs Argentino Merlo

Team pages: UAI Urquiza · Argentino Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.79Total

UAI Urquiza0.87

Argentino Merlo0.92

1X2

32% 34% 34%

UAI Urquiza Draw Argentino Merlo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

UAI Urquiza 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDLDLL

Argentino Merlo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWDDLD

Head-to-head

UAI Urquiza 1–2–3 Argentino Merlo (6 last)

Argentino Merlo0-2UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza0-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo0-0UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza1-4Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo3-2UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza2-3Argentino Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UAI Urquiza 1458 · Argentino Merlo 1463

	UAI Urquiza	Draw	Argentino Merlo
Our model	31%	36%	33%
Market	32%	32%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UAI Urquiza	Argentino Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.6	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X2.75

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:44 +18’	2.75	2.75	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UAI Urquiza 1–2–3 Argentino Merlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-2 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
19/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
01/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-0 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
04/11/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	1-4 HT 1-2	Argentino Merlo
16/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	3-2 HT 2-1	UAI Urquiza
19/08/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-3 HT 1-3	Argentino Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	33	18	8	7	49	27	62
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	33	16	12	5	44	22	60
3	Atletico Camioneros	33	16	12	5	39	20	60
4	Villa Dalmine	33	16	12	5	35	16	60
5	Talleres Remedios	33	17	9	7	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	33	15	10	8	38	25	55
7	Real Pilar	33	14	10	9	37	32	52
8	Deportivo Armenio	33	13	8	12	35	37	47
9	Club Comunicaciones	33	12	10	11	33	31	46
10	Deportivo Laferrere	33	12	10	11	39	42	46
11	CS Dock Sud	33	10	13	10	38	34	43
12	Argentino Merlo	33	10	11	12	30	32	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	33	9	13	11	31	36	40
14	Deportivo Merlo	33	9	12	12	34	48	39
15	Villa San Carlos	33	9	11	13	34	38	38
16	Argentino Quilmes	33	8	13	12	28	35	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	33	8	12	13	25	33	36
18	CSD Flandria	33	9	8	16	28	39	35
19	Defensores Unidos	33	7	12	14	28	36	33
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	33	7	12	14	21	35	33
21	UAI Urquiza	33	3	19	11	15	29	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	33	1	11	21	19	51	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UAI Urquiza	Argentino Merlo
Talleres Remedios	0-1 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Laferrere	0-2 L	1-3 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Armenio	0-1 L	2-2 D
CSD Flandria	1-1 D	0-1 L
Argentino Quilmes	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Argentino Merlo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UAI Urquiza

DDLDDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	11	5	L
22/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
08/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
01/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
25/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
18/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
14/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
10/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Argentino Merlo

WLDLLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
14/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UAI Urquiza vs Argentino Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Argentino Merlo win (34%). Probabilities: UAI Urquiza 32%, draw 34%, Argentino Merlo 34%.

How many goals are expected in UAI Urquiza vs Argentino Merlo?

The model expects 1.79 goals (UAI Urquiza 0.87 · Argentino Merlo 0.92), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UAI Urquiza vs Argentino Merlo?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.