Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 06/09, 20:00

Prediction: Villa San Carlos vs CA Brown de Adrogue

Team pages: Villa San Carlos · CA Brown de Adrogue

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

Villa San Carlos1.05

CA Brown de Adrogue0.85

1X2

39% 33% 28%

Villa San Carlos Draw CA Brown de Adrogue

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Villa San Carlos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWWWWL

CA Brown de Adrogue 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWLDLD

Head-to-head

Villa San Carlos 2–3 CA Brown de Adrogue (5 last)

CA Brown de Adrogue2-1Villa San Carlos
CA Brown de Adrogue1-0Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos2-1CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue1-0Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos1-0CA Brown de Adrogue

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villa San Carlos 1521 · CA Brown de Adrogue 1481

	Villa San Carlos	Draw	CA Brown de Adrogue
Our model	38%	34%	27%
Market	39%	32%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villa San Carlos (rating 1521 vs 1481).
H2H favours CA Brown de Adrogue: 3-0-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villa San Carlos	CA Brown de Adrogue
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	1.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:45 +17’	2.30	2.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa San Carlos 2–0–3 CA Brown de Adrogue

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	2-1 HT 1-0	Villa San Carlos
09/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	1-0 HT 1-0	Villa San Carlos
23/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	2-1 HT 1-1	CA Brown de Adrogue
17/10/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	1-0 HT 0-0	Villa San Carlos
08/06/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Brown de Adrogue

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	33	18	8	7	49	27	62
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	33	16	12	5	44	22	60
3	Atletico Camioneros	33	16	12	5	39	20	60
4	Villa Dalmine	33	16	12	5	35	16	60
5	Talleres Remedios	33	17	9	7	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	33	15	10	8	38	25	55
7	Real Pilar	33	14	10	9	37	32	52
8	Deportivo Armenio	33	13	8	12	35	37	47
9	Club Comunicaciones	33	12	10	11	33	31	46
10	Deportivo Laferrere	33	12	10	11	39	42	46
11	CS Dock Sud	33	10	13	10	38	34	43
12	Argentino Merlo	33	10	11	12	30	32	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	33	9	13	11	31	36	40
14	Deportivo Merlo	33	9	12	12	34	48	39
15	Villa San Carlos	33	9	11	13	34	38	38
16	Argentino Quilmes	33	8	13	12	28	35	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	33	8	12	13	25	33	36
18	CSD Flandria	33	9	8	16	28	39	35
19	Defensores Unidos	33	7	12	14	28	36	33
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	33	7	12	14	21	35	33
21	UAI Urquiza	33	3	19	11	15	29	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	33	1	11	21	19	51	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villa San Carlos

DLLWDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	12	6	W
23/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
16/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
08/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
26/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
18/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
14/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
10/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

CA Brown de Adrogue

DLLWDWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
25/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
22/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
15/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
08/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
31/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
25/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villa San Carlos vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Villa San Carlos win (39%). Probabilities: Villa San Carlos 39%, draw 33%, CA Brown de Adrogue 28%.

How many goals are expected in Villa San Carlos vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model expects 1.9 goals (Villa San Carlos 1.05 · CA Brown de Adrogue 0.85), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Villa San Carlos vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.