Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 15/08, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs CA Ituzaingo

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · CA Ituzaingo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Argentino Merlo1.57

CA Ituzaingo0.8

1X2

54% 28% 18%

Argentino Merlo Draw CA Ituzaingo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLDLLW

CA Ituzaingo 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 2–3–1 CA Ituzaingo (6 last)

CA Ituzaingo0-1Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo0-0CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo0-0Argentino Merlo
CA Ituzaingo2-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo2-0CA Ituzaingo
Argentino Merlo2-2CA Ituzaingo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1517 · CA Ituzaingo 1422

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	CA Ituzaingo
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	54%	28%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Argentino Merlo (rating 1517 vs 1422).
H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	CA Ituzaingo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.66
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.31 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:24 +4’	1.65	3.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:50 +10’	1.66	3.31	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 2–3–1 CA Ituzaingo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	0-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Merlo
12/09/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
09/05/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	0-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
19/12/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	2-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
14/12/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Ituzaingo
30/10/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-2 HT 1-1	CA Ituzaingo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Camioneros	29	15	9	5	35	18	54
2	Excursionistas	29	15	8	6	40	20	53
3	Arsenal de Sarandi	29	14	11	4	39	21	53
4	Talleres Remedios	29	15	8	6	32	15	53
5	Villa Dalmine	29	14	10	5	32	16	52
6	Sportivo Italiano	29	13	10	6	32	22	49
7	Real Pilar	29	12	8	9	33	31	44
8	Deportivo Laferrere	29	11	9	9	33	34	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	32	33	41
10	Club Comunicaciones	29	10	9	10	31	29	39
11	Argentino Merlo	29	10	8	11	29	29	38
12	Deportivo Merlo	29	9	10	10	33	45	37
13	CS Dock Sud	29	8	12	9	32	27	36
14	San Martin De Burzaco	29	8	12	9	28	30	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	25	28	34
16	Deportivo Liniers	29	7	11	11	21	29	32
17	CA Brown de Adrogue	29	7	10	12	19	30	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	28	35	29
19	CSD Flandria	29	7	7	15	23	36	28
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	14	24	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	24	35	26
22	CA Ituzaingo	29	1	9	19	18	46	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Merlo	CA Ituzaingo
Talleres Remedios	2-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Laferrere	1-3 L	0-2 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	0-0 D
Deportivo Armenio	2-2 D	1-2 L
CSD Flandria	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Argentino Merlo (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

DWWDWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
14/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	10	W
05/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
28/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
21/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	1	6	D

CA Ituzaingo

LDLLDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
01/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
18/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
15/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
10/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
04/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
27/06	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/06	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
13/06	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-3	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs CA Ituzaingo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Argentino Merlo win (54%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 54%, draw 28%, CA Ituzaingo 18%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Argentino Merlo 1.57 · CA Ituzaingo 0.8), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.