Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 15/08, 20:00

Prediction: Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere

Team pages: Excursionistas · Deportivo Laferrere

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Excursionistas1.37

Deportivo Laferrere0.83

1X2

49% 30% 22%

Excursionistas Draw Deportivo Laferrere

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Excursionistas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWDDWL

Deportivo Laferrere 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

Excursionistas 2–1–3 Deportivo Laferrere (6 last)

Deportivo Laferrere1-0Excursionistas
Excursionistas1-2Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere2-0Excursionistas
Excursionistas4-0Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere2-3Excursionistas
Deportivo Laferrere1-1Excursionistas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1492 · Deportivo Laferrere 1559

	Excursionistas	Draw	Deportivo Laferrere
Our model	48%	30%	21%
Market	49%	29%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Laferrere (rating 1492 vs 1559).
H2H favours Deportivo Laferrere: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excursionistas	Deportivo Laferrere
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.10

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.86
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.25 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:57 +7’	1.83	3.10	4.10
21:53 +6’	1.95▲	3.10	3.60▼
02:34 +5’	1.85▼	3.10	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:50 +9’	1.83	3.08	4.24
02:37 +1’	1.86▲	3.01▼	4.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 2–1–3 Deportivo Laferrere

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-0 HT 1-0	Excursionistas
21/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-2 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere
01/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	2-0 HT 0-0	Excursionistas
21/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	4-0 HT 3-0	Deportivo Laferrere
05/05/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	2-3 HT 0-2	Excursionistas
04/09/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-1 HT 0-0	Excursionistas

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Camioneros	29	15	9	5	35	18	54
2	Excursionistas	29	15	8	6	40	20	53
3	Arsenal de Sarandi	29	14	11	4	39	21	53
4	Talleres Remedios	29	15	8	6	32	15	53
5	Villa Dalmine	29	14	10	5	32	16	52
6	Sportivo Italiano	29	13	10	6	32	22	49
7	Real Pilar	29	12	8	9	33	31	44
8	Deportivo Laferrere	29	11	9	9	33	34	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	32	33	41
10	Club Comunicaciones	29	10	9	10	31	29	39
11	Argentino Merlo	29	10	8	11	29	29	38
12	Deportivo Merlo	29	9	10	10	33	45	37
13	CS Dock Sud	29	8	12	9	32	27	36
14	San Martin De Burzaco	29	8	12	9	28	30	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	25	28	34
16	Deportivo Liniers	29	7	11	11	21	29	32
17	CA Brown de Adrogue	29	7	10	12	19	30	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	28	35	29
19	CSD Flandria	29	7	7	15	23	36	28
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	14	24	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	24	35	26
22	CA Ituzaingo	29	1	9	19	18	46	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Excursionistas	Deportivo Laferrere
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Armenio	2-1 W	1-1 D
CSD Flandria	1-1 D	2-1 W
Argentino Quilmes	0-0 D	1-1 D
Defensores Unidos	2-0 W	1-0 W
Club Comunicaciones	1-2 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Laferrere (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Excursionistas

WDWLLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
25/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
10/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
04/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
27/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
20/06	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
13/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	8	W

Deportivo Laferrere

DWDWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
26/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
18/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
15/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
10/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
28/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
20/06	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
13/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-3	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (49%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 49%, draw 30%, Deportivo Laferrere 22%.

How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Excursionistas 1.37 · Deportivo Laferrere 0.83), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.