Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 01/08, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Laferrere

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · Deportivo Laferrere

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Argentino Merlo1.27

Deportivo Laferrere1.16

1X2

37% 31% 32%

Argentino Merlo Draw Deportivo Laferrere

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDWLDL

Deportivo Laferrere 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWDWWL

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 2–2–2 Deportivo Laferrere (6 last)

Deportivo Laferrere1-3Argentino Merlo
Deportivo Laferrere2-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo0-2Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere0-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo2-2Deportivo Laferrere
Argentino Merlo2-0Deportivo Laferrere

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1524 · Deportivo Laferrere 1523

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	Deportivo Laferrere
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	37%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	Deportivo Laferrere
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X2.88

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.73

2 (0)2.08

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:53 +13’	2.40	2.88	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 2–2–2 Deportivo Laferrere

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-3 HT 1-1	Argentino Merlo
27/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	2-0 HT 1-0	Argentino Merlo
10/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Laferrere
21/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	0-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
02/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Laferrere
04/11/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Laferrere

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Talleres Remedios	27	15	7	5	31	13	52
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	27	14	9	4	37	19	51
3	Excursionistas	27	14	8	5	38	18	50
4	Atletico Camioneros	27	14	8	5	33	17	50
5	Villa Dalmine	27	13	10	4	30	14	49
6	Sportivo Italiano	27	12	9	6	27	21	45
7	Real Pilar	27	11	7	9	31	30	40
8	Club Comunicaciones	27	10	8	9	31	28	38
9	Deportivo Armenio	27	10	8	9	30	31	38
10	Deportivo Laferrere	27	10	8	9	29	32	38
11	Deportivo Merlo	27	9	9	9	32	40	36
12	Argentino Merlo	27	9	8	10	26	25	35
12	San Martin De Burzaco	27	8	11	8	26	25	35
14	CS Dock Sud	27	7	11	9	27	25	32
15	Argentino Quilmes	27	7	11	9	25	28	32
16	Deportivo Liniers	27	6	10	11	18	27	28
17	CSD Flandria	27	7	6	14	21	33	27
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	27	6	9	12	17	29	27
19	Defensores Unidos	27	5	11	11	21	30	26
20	Villa San Carlos	27	5	10	12	26	34	25
21	UAI Urquiza	27	3	16	8	13	23	25
22	CA Ituzaingo	27	1	8	18	18	45	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Merlo	Deportivo Laferrere
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Armenio	2-2 D	1-1 D
CSD Flandria	0-1 L	2-1 W
Argentino Quilmes	3-0 W	1-1 D
Defensores Unidos	1-1 D	1-0 W
Club Comunicaciones	3-2 W	3-3 D
CS Dock Sud	3-1 W	2-1 W
Deportivo Merlo	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Argentino Merlo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

WDDWWDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
14/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	10	W
05/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
28/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
21/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	1	6	D
06/06	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/05	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	1	6	W

Deportivo Laferrere

LWDWDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
18/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
15/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
10/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
28/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
20/06	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
13/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-3	1	6	D
07/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
03/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Laferrere?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Argentino Merlo win (37%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 37%, draw 31%, Deportivo Laferrere 32%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Laferrere?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Argentino Merlo 1.27 · Deportivo Laferrere 1.16), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Laferrere?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.