Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano

Team pages: Deportivo Merlo · Sportivo Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Deportivo Merlo1.14

Sportivo Italiano1.11

1X2

35% 32% 33%

Deportivo Merlo Draw Sportivo Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Merlo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDWDLD

Sportivo Italiano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWWWDD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Merlo 0–2–4 Sportivo Italiano (6 last)

Sportivo Italiano2-1Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano1-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-2Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Merlo1-1Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano1-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-1Sportivo Italiano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1440 · Sportivo Italiano 1547

	Deportivo Merlo	Draw	Sportivo Italiano
Our model	35%	31%	33%
Market	34%	33%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Italiano (rating 1440 vs 1547).
H2H favours Sportivo Italiano: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Merlo	Sportivo Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.8	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.63

X2.75

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.93

Under 1.751.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.63▼	Pinn 2.75
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.60 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.90 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:26 +2’	2.75	2.75	2.60
03:50 +12’	2.63▼	2.75	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:49	2.82	2.59	2.75
03:59 +3’	2.70▼	2.60▲	2.85▲
13:39 +3’	2.75▲	2.52▼	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 0–2–4 Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Merlo
20/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
04/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Italiano
20/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
02/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
04/02/20 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Italiano

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Camioneros	29	15	9	5	35	18	54
2	Excursionistas	28	15	8	5	40	19	53
3	Talleres Remedios	28	15	8	5	31	13	53
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	28	14	10	4	38	20	52
5	Villa Dalmine	28	14	10	4	32	15	52
6	Sportivo Italiano	28	12	10	6	28	22	46
7	Real Pilar	28	12	7	9	33	31	43
8	Deportivo Laferrere	28	11	8	9	32	33	41
9	Club Comunicaciones	29	10	9	10	31	29	39
10	Deportivo Armenio	28	10	8	10	31	33	38
11	Deportivo Merlo	28	9	10	9	33	41	37
12	San Martin De Burzaco	28	8	12	8	27	26	36
13	Argentino Merlo	28	9	8	11	27	28	35
14	CS Dock Sud	28	7	12	9	28	26	33
15	Argentino Quilmes	28	7	12	9	25	28	33
16	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	28	35	29
17	Deportivo Liniers	28	6	11	11	18	27	29
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	28	6	10	12	18	30	28
19	CSD Flandria	28	7	6	15	22	35	27
20	Defensores Unidos	28	5	11	12	22	32	26
21	UAI Urquiza	28	3	17	8	13	23	26
22	CA Ituzaingo	29	1	9	19	18	46	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Merlo	Sportivo Italiano
San Martin De Burzaco	1-1 D	2-1 W
Villa San Carlos	1-2 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Liniers	1-1 D	1-0 W
Real Pilar	3-2 W	1-1 D
UAI Urquiza	0-0 D	0-0 D
Villa Dalmine	1-2 L	1-2 L
Excursionistas	0-5 L	0-1 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	2-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Merlo

LDLLLDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
26/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	10	D
15/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-2	0	6	W
10/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
04/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
27/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
21/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-3	2-4	2	9	L
15/06	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	6	D
06/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	6	L

Sportivo Italiano

WLLDDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	11	D
25/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
14/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
05/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/06	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
20/06	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
13/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
06/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Merlo win (35%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 35%, draw 32%, Sportivo Italiano 33%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Deportivo Merlo 1.14 · Sportivo Italiano 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.