Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: CA Brown de Adrogue vs Excursionistas

Team pages: CA Brown de Adrogue · Excursionistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

CA Brown de Adrogue0.81

Excursionistas1.11

1X2

26% 32% 42%

CA Brown de Adrogue Draw Excursionistas

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

CA Brown de Adrogue 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDDLLWD

Excursionistas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLWDDW

Head-to-head

CA Brown de Adrogue 2–1 Excursionistas (3 last)

Excursionistas1-0CA Brown de Adrogue
Excursionistas0-2CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue2-0Excursionistas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Brown de Adrogue 1468 · Excursionistas 1541

	CA Brown de Adrogue	Draw	Excursionistas
Our model	25%	34%	41%
Market	26%	31%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1468 vs 1541).
H2H favours CA Brown de Adrogue: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Brown de Adrogue	Excursionistas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	3.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X2.88

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:43 +16’	3.40	2.88	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Brown de Adrogue 2–0–1 Excursionistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Brown de Adrogue
09/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	0-2 HT 0-2	CA Brown de Adrogue
19/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	2-0 HT 0-0	Excursionistas

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	28	15	8	5	40	19	53
2	Talleres Remedios	28	15	8	5	31	13	53
3	Arsenal de Sarandi	28	14	10	4	38	20	52
4	Villa Dalmine	28	14	10	4	32	15	52
5	Atletico Camioneros	28	14	9	5	34	18	51
6	Sportivo Italiano	28	12	10	6	28	22	46
7	Real Pilar	28	12	7	9	33	31	43
8	Deportivo Laferrere	28	11	8	9	32	33	41
9	Club Comunicaciones	28	10	9	9	31	28	39
10	Deportivo Armenio	28	10	8	10	31	33	38
11	Deportivo Merlo	28	9	10	9	33	41	37
12	San Martin De Burzaco	28	8	12	8	27	26	36
13	Argentino Merlo	28	9	8	11	27	28	35
14	CS Dock Sud	28	7	12	9	28	26	33
15	Argentino Quilmes	28	7	12	9	25	28	33
16	Deportivo Liniers	28	6	11	11	18	27	29
17	CA Brown de Adrogue	28	6	10	12	18	30	28
18	CSD Flandria	28	7	6	15	22	35	27
19	Villa San Carlos	28	5	11	12	27	35	26
20	Defensores Unidos	28	5	11	12	22	32	26
21	UAI Urquiza	28	3	17	8	13	23	26
22	CA Ituzaingo	28	1	9	18	18	45	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Brown de Adrogue	Excursionistas
Deportivo Armenio	0-0 D	2-1 W
CSD Flandria	2-0 W	1-1 D
Argentino Quilmes	2-4 L	0-0 D
Defensores Unidos	1-1 D	2-0 W
Club Comunicaciones	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Brown de Adrogue

LDLWDDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
25/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/06	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-4	6	4	L
13/06	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	2	4	L

Excursionistas

WWDWLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
25/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
10/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
04/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
27/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
20/06	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
13/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
06/06	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Brown de Adrogue vs Excursionistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Excursionistas win (42%). Probabilities: CA Brown de Adrogue 26%, draw 32%, Excursionistas 42%.

How many goals are expected in CA Brown de Adrogue vs Excursionistas?

The model expects 1.92 goals (CA Brown de Adrogue 0.81 · Excursionistas 1.11), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Brown de Adrogue vs Excursionistas?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.