Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 01/08, 01:00

Prediction: Excursionistas vs Deportivo Armenio

Team pages: Excursionistas · Deportivo Armenio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Excursionistas1.39

Deportivo Armenio0.8

1X2

50% 29% 21%

Excursionistas Draw Deportivo Armenio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Excursionistas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLWDD

Deportivo Armenio 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDWDD

Head-to-head

Excursionistas 2–1–3 Deportivo Armenio (6 last)

Deportivo Armenio0-2Excursionistas
Deportivo Armenio2-1Excursionistas
Excursionistas1-0Deportivo Armenio
Excursionistas1-1Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio2-1Excursionistas
Deportivo Armenio3-0Excursionistas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1536 · Deportivo Armenio 1541

	Excursionistas	Draw	Deportivo Armenio
Our model	50%	30%	20%
Market	50%	29%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Armenio: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excursionistas	Deportivo Armenio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	3.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +2’	1.80	3.10	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 2–1–3 Deportivo Armenio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	0-2 HT 0-1	Excursionistas
27/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	2-1 HT 1-0	Excursionistas
10/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Armenio
03/11/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Armenio
15/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	2-1 HT 1-0	Excursionistas
13/05/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	3-0 HT 3-0	Excursionistas

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Talleres Remedios	27	15	7	5	31	13	52
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	27	14	9	4	37	19	51
3	Excursionistas	27	14	8	5	38	18	50
4	Atletico Camioneros	27	14	8	5	33	17	50
5	Villa Dalmine	27	13	10	4	30	14	49
6	Sportivo Italiano	27	12	9	6	27	21	45
7	Real Pilar	27	11	7	9	31	30	40
8	Club Comunicaciones	27	10	8	9	31	28	38
9	Deportivo Armenio	27	10	8	9	30	31	38
10	Deportivo Laferrere	27	10	8	9	29	32	38
11	Deportivo Merlo	27	9	9	9	32	40	36
12	Argentino Merlo	27	9	8	10	26	25	35
12	San Martin De Burzaco	27	8	11	8	26	25	35
14	CS Dock Sud	27	7	11	9	27	25	32
15	Argentino Quilmes	27	7	11	9	25	28	32
16	Deportivo Liniers	27	6	10	11	18	27	28
17	CSD Flandria	27	7	6	14	21	33	27
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	27	6	9	12	17	29	27
19	Defensores Unidos	27	5	11	11	21	30	26
20	Villa San Carlos	27	5	10	12	26	34	25
21	UAI Urquiza	27	3	16	8	13	23	25
22	CA Ituzaingo	27	1	8	18	18	45	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Excursionistas	Deportivo Armenio
CSD Flandria	1-1 D	2-1 W
Argentino Quilmes	0-0 D	1-1 D
Defensores Unidos	2-0 W	3-0 W
Club Comunicaciones	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Armenio (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Excursionistas

WWWDWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
10/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
04/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
27/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
20/06	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
13/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
06/06	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/05	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	3	8	W

Deportivo Armenio

WWDWWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
18/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	6	5	D
14/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
10/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
04/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
27/06	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/06	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
14/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
06/06	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
30/05	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Deportivo Armenio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (50%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 50%, draw 29%, Deportivo Armenio 21%.

How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Deportivo Armenio?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Excursionistas 1.39 · Deportivo Armenio 0.8), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Deportivo Armenio?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.