Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 01/08, 20:00

Prediction: Real Pilar vs Defensores Unidos

Team pages: Real Pilar · Defensores Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Real Pilar1.39

Defensores Unidos0.68

1X2

53% 29% 18%

Real Pilar Draw Defensores Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Real Pilar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWLLW

Defensores Unidos 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLLDD

Head-to-head

Real Pilar 1–0 Defensores Unidos (1 last)

Defensores Unidos1-2Real Pilar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Pilar 1507 · Defensores Unidos 1440

	Real Pilar	Draw	Defensores Unidos
Our model	53%	30%	17%
Market	54%	28%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Pilar (rating 1507 vs 1440).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Pilar	Defensores Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.2	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +1’	1.67	3.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Pilar 1–0–0 Defensores Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-2 HT 1-0	Real Pilar

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Talleres Remedios	27	15	7	5	31	13	52
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	27	14	9	4	37	19	51
3	Excursionistas	27	14	8	5	38	18	50
4	Atletico Camioneros	27	14	8	5	33	17	50
5	Villa Dalmine	27	13	10	4	30	14	49
6	Sportivo Italiano	27	12	9	6	27	21	45
7	Real Pilar	27	11	7	9	31	30	40
8	Club Comunicaciones	27	10	8	9	31	28	38
9	Deportivo Armenio	27	10	8	9	30	31	38
10	Deportivo Laferrere	27	10	8	9	29	32	38
11	Deportivo Merlo	27	9	9	9	32	40	36
12	Argentino Merlo	27	9	8	10	26	25	35
12	San Martin De Burzaco	27	8	11	8	26	25	35
14	CS Dock Sud	27	7	11	9	27	25	32
15	Argentino Quilmes	27	7	11	9	25	28	32
16	Deportivo Liniers	27	6	10	11	18	27	28
17	CSD Flandria	27	7	6	14	21	33	27
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	27	6	9	12	17	29	27
19	Defensores Unidos	27	5	11	11	21	30	26
20	Villa San Carlos	27	5	10	12	26	34	25
21	UAI Urquiza	27	3	16	8	13	23	25
22	CA Ituzaingo	27	1	8	18	18	45	11

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Pilar

WLWDDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	3	8	W
18/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	2-3	6	6	L
10/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
05/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
27/06	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
20/06	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
14/06	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
05/06	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	12	L
30/05	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	2	W

Defensores Unidos

WLDLLDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
14/07	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
05/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
27/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
20/06	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
13/06	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
06/06	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
31/05	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Pilar vs Defensores Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Pilar win (53%). Probabilities: Real Pilar 53%, draw 29%, Defensores Unidos 18%.

How many goals are expected in Real Pilar vs Defensores Unidos?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Real Pilar 1.39 · Defensores Unidos 0.68), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Pilar vs Defensores Unidos?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.